US

James Mackintosh

Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned of the dangers in the eurozone in his latest op-ed for the FT, and it is hard to disagree. But part of what he said bothered me:

A worrisome indicator in much of Europe is the tendency of stock and bond prices to move together. In healthy countries, when sentiment improves stock prices rise and bond prices fall, as risk premiums decline and interest rates rise. In unhealthy economies, as in much of Europe today, bonds are seen as risk assets, so they move just like stocks in response to changes in sentiment. Read more

James Mackintosh

To answer the question of who owns corporate America, we turn naturally enough to Goldman Sachs. In spite of all the “vampire squid” hype, the answer isn’t GS: but it does have an excellent summary of how ownership has changed (click on the chart for a bigger version).

Ownership of corporate America Read more

US GDP dropped in the fourth quarter of 2012 for the first time outside a recession since 1977, thanks to surprise cuts in defence spending. James Mackintosh, investment editor, finds some good signs in the data, but worries that if good news comes through on the economy would be bad news for investors.

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Small caps in the US have hit their fifth new high of the year and UK smaller companies soared past their previous peak a month ago – both climbing 172 per cent since 2009. But James Mackintosh, investment editor, warns that if the current rally peters out small caps look particularly exposed.

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Investors are becoming more hopeful that a deal will be done to avoid the US fiscal cliff. But would it really be so bad if no deal was reached? James Mackintosh, investment editor, explores the impact of the tax hikes and spending cuts due in the new year. Read more

Consumer confidence in the US is climbing despite disposable incomes flatlining for five years, suggesting few worries about the looming fiscal cliff. James Mackintosh, investment editor, points out the worries among chief executives and warns that even if the fiscal cliff becomes a fiscal staircase, it could still be an uncomfortable climb down. Read more

Reasons to be fearful are everywhere: Greece, triple-dip Japan and the looming fiscal cliff in the US. Yet, as James Mackintosh, investment editor, points out, share, bond and currency volatility are all extremely low. Is this complacency or have central banks disconnected the volatility sensors? Read more

James Mackintosh

Market outlooks for the US election were clear: an Obama victory would be bad for shares and good for bonds, as the incumbent president would have less chance of cutting a deal with an intransigent Congress than his challenger.

Barack Obama would also be bad for the dollar, as there would be no pressure on the Federal Reserve from a hawkish Republican to tighten monetary policy, meaning the easiest monetary policy ever would remain in place. Read more

James Mackintosh

Even after the extraordinary summer rally in European equities, strategists continue to punt European shares as cheap, and so worth buying. Unfortunately, it’s more complicated than that.

The sell-side analysts pushing the idea are too numerous to list, but one of the better argued cases is that presented by the cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE), which averages profits over 10 years in an attempt to eliminate the effects of the economic cycle.

Paul Jackson at Societe Generale has some nice charts showing Europe looks cheap, and demonstrating the use of one derivative of CAPE, the cyclically-adjusted dividend yield.

CAPE vs its average Read more