Monthly Archives: November 2012

Brazil is a commodity exporter – and even more so than official statistics suggest. The share of its exports taken by what are classified by the government as primary goods was just below 30 per cent for most of the past two decades, rising to nearly half of all exports in the last five years. But if we include items such as raw and refined sugar, unsweetened cocoa powder, crude soybean oil, cocoa butter and other products that have a level of processing but are closely derived from commodities dug up or harvested in the country, the proportion rises to different levels. Chart of the week takes a look.

The revised picture shows the shrinking role in trade played by Brazilian manufacturers and the vulnerability of Brazilian exports to the shifting tides of the global economy.

Using our broader classification, Brazil’s commodity-based exports rise to half of the total during the past two decades and to more than two thirds in the last year. The share of manufactured goods therefore falls from about half to less than a third – showing that growth in Brazilian exports has been driven entirely by commodity-based goods.

 Read more >>

Chris Cook

Fraser Nelson, editor of the Spectator, has written up a paper on Swedish school reforms, which you can download here. I thought it was worth using to quickly flag up two important statistical public policy points.

The context to this is that Sweden has, since the early 1990s, allowed private (including for-profit) institutions to enter the school system – and parallels are often drawn between it and the ongoing reforms of England’s school system. This paper, as Fraser rightly says, comes to the view that increasing the volume of private schools in an area is associated with improved results. Mikael Lindahl and Anders Böhlmark say:

If we transform our estimates to standard deviation (S.D.) units (using the variation across all individuals) we find that a 10 percentage point increase in the share of independent-school students has resulted in 0.07 S.D. higher average educational achievement at the end of compulsory school.

 Read more >>

Chris Cook

Last week, the excellent Paul Francis, political editor of the Kent Messenger, reported that Kent, the most significant selective county left in England had come up with a clever plan: to make the entry test for grammar schools “tutor-proof”.

This idea comes up a lot, largely from people promoting selection. You can see why: it is often presented as a means of squaring a problem. They can argue that grammar schools help bright poor children while dealing with the fact that very few get into them.

But, in truth, a properly administered test, which accurately captures the education enjoyed by people at the age of 11, should exclude large numbers of poor children. Not because they are intrinsically less able. But, at 11, the poor-rich divide is already a chasm. Read more >>

Thailand’s economy grew at a 3 per cent year on year in the third quarter, a slight decrease from Q2 but in line with analysts’ expectations.

But as data released on Monday show, the pattern of the previous four quarters is now entrenched – Thai GDP is being dragged down by its poor export performance. Chart of the week takes a closer look.

As the chart below shows, Thailand’s economy would have grown at 4 per cent in the third quarter, a full percentage point higher, were it not for the negative net contribution of exports. Even so, things were better than they were during the previous three quarters, when the economy would have grown as much as 4 to 6 percentage points faster if it was not for the negative impact of exports.

 Read more >>

Valentina Romei

Today, World Diabetes Day, is a good time to look at what countries weigh. Not in economic heft or population numbers, but the actual physical weight of their population.

Specifically, we established countries’ share of the global population and their share of global weight (using data on their average body mass index (BMI) and their average height for the male population over 20 years old). Then we calculated the difference between these two measures.

The weightiest countries are the US, Mexico and Brazil: their share of the total global body mass is bigger than their proportion of the global population. All three countries have an average body mass index of above 25, which corresponds to being overweight. Read more >>

Nate Silver’s success in predicting the winner of the US election symbolises a generational shift in political analysis, from qualitative to quantitative, rendering an intermediate class of skilled labour obsolete. It is a shift already seen in other fields, such as finance. Read more >>