Chris Giles

Chris Giles has been the economics editor of the Financial Times since 2004. Based in London, he writes about international economic trends and the British economy. Before reporting economics for the Financial Times, he wrote editorials for the paper, reported for the BBC, worked as a regulator of the broadcasting industry and undertook research for the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

On Wednesday, the Office for National Statistics for the first time published regional growth figures for the UK. The obvious question that popped into my mind was to compare the Scottish growth with that published by the Scottish government.

I produced the following chart and wrote what looked like a cracking story because the ONS measure showed little over half the growth of the Scottish Government data, raising questions over the strength of Scotland’s economy.

Scottish officials were naturally upset with the ONS calculation and these were “experimental” figures, so the Scottish government’s data is most likely to be accurate. The difference, however is so large that it requires a bit more analysis. The ONS put out a statement in response to the FT’s article saying it had gaffed. But the statement did not help much.

 Read more

1. Forget the announcements

The net tax and spending measures are tiny compared with the forecasting changes to tax receipts. The purple bar on the right of this chart shows just how small the announcement are relative to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasting changes. Read more

Market-sensitive data on economic growth, inflation and employment could be “drip fed” into the public domain because the Office for National Statistics’ website regularly failed to publish them at 9.30am.

Britain’s regulator of statistics has proposed that only the headline number for the most important economic statistics should initially be available online, with the full data sets published an hour later.

 Read more

Industrial production and manufacturing figures for September were published by the Office for National Statistics this morning. They showed manufacturing picked up in September a little more than the statisticians had expected when they estimated third quarter economic growth, but not enough to trigger a revision to the 0.8 per cent initial growth estimate. The following five charts add some detail and put the figures in context.

1. Manufacturing still has a long way to recover

For all the talk of the “March of the makers“, manufacturing remains over 8 per cent below the economy’s 2008 peak and even further below the peak of manufacturing output which was reached in November 2000. Production, which also includes coal mining, oil and gas extraction, electricity, gas and water supply and sewerage has performed even worse since 2008, mostly due to the decline in North Sea oil and gas extraction.

 Read more

George Osborne’s attempt to flatter the official headline measures of the public finances came unstuck on Wednesday after the UK Statistics Authority reprimanded the Office for National Statistics for treating the Treasury’s raid on the Bank of England as equivalent to tax revenues.

Upholding a complaint from the Financial Times about the ONS decision, the statistics watchdog called for a review of the headline measures of public borrowing and debt.

The decision will stop the chancellor from claiming borrowing is lower merely because funds have been moved from one part of the public sector to another, and demonstrates that the UKSA is willing to criticise the statistical work of its own government department as well as ministers.In November, Mr Osborne announced he would repatriate to the Treasury the funds building up under the quantitative easing scheme in the Bank of England arising from interest payments on the debt owned by the bank.

The Treasury hoped this raid would improve headline figures of government borrowing, helping Mr Osborne to meet his fiscal rules and say borrowing was falling, despite the weak economy.

Initially the ONS agreed with the Treasury’s arguments, but this has now been overturned by the UKSA, which said the counter arguments made by the FT were “more persuasive”.

 Read more

HSE data show more tower cranes have been erected in London since 2010 than in the rest of the UK combined

With Britain’s economy bumping along the bottom and official data prone to large revisions, analysts have been on the lookout for indicators of regional and national recovery.

Until now, no one spotted a good set of figures, quietly collated at the Health and Safety Executive. Cranes puncturing the skyline are the most visible indicator of economic dynamism and have often been used to gauge the heat in economies as diverse as Dubai or China and the torpor of Tokyo.

The HSE started requiring the operators of tower cranes – used for new office buildings, infrastructure, larger residential blocks and big public sector projects – to register their addresses in 2010, providing an invaluable snapshot of the building industry in action.

The results show a remarkable degree of concentration in London and its surrounding counties, signifying a gulf between the optimism about a prosperous future for the capital and pessimism in the rest of the UK.

With London home to only one in eight people in the UK, it has seen more tower cranes notified to the HSE than all the rest of the UK put together. Almost eight in 10 cranes were in London, the southeast and the east of England.

 Read more