Falling inflation, galloping house prices, rising retail sales and growing business confidence are all feeding into expectations for strong economic growth in the UK this year.
With the first quarter GDP numbers due out later this month, expect a tidal wave of discussion and comment about the completeness of the UK recovery. But a timely new paper from the Office for National Statistics offers a good reminder of why GDP on its own is a poor measure of economic well-being.
Take GDP itself as a starting point.
It is calculated without reference to the size of population, so while the headline number has re-bounded, when you consider population growth the picture looks a lot less rosy.
Per person, it has barely budged since 2008. On the official budget forecasts, UK economic output will have risen 8 per cent between the two general elections, per capita gross domestic product is predicted to have increased by only 3.8 per cent. But until this gap narrows, families are unlikely to feel better off. Read more
(c) Getty Images
Anyone who spends time in the capital, where flocks of cyclists are a feature of life, will nod in recognition at the news that the number of people cycling to work in London has doubled over the last decade.
But what’s less known is how far this increase has been driven by the gentrification of inner London. House prices have soared in London’s poorest urban boroughs as 20-somethings and families have stayed in London, rather than moving out to suburbia.
||Change in average house price 2001-2011
||Change in people cycling to work 2001-2011
||IMD ranking (1=most deprived)
(Source: ONS, Land Registry) Read more
Turmoil, panic, retreat: it’s not been a pretty start to the year for emerging market currencies and stock markets. Here, in seven charts, is the story of 2014 so far.
1. The equity context
As the base of the turmoil is the reverse of the post-crisis trend in capital flows, which began last summer on talk of the Fed taper. Money is leaving the emerging markets and returning to Europe. EPFR Global, which tracks investment flows, estimates that emerging market equity outflows hit $12.2bn in January.
News that Lloyds has raised to an eye-watering £9.8bn its provisions to cover claims over the mis-selling of payment protection performance (PPI) is a reminder the issue is far from over for UK banks.
The big five high street banks have set aside just under £20bn to date to cover both compensation and the associated administrative costs of assessing claims. Lloyds is by far the worst hit of the major UK banks, but the sums set aside by the others are still substantial.
If you follow a certain section of the internet, over the last day your news feed has probably been buzzing with obscure clues to cryptography, William Blake’s poetry, transcendentalism and of course Cicada images.
If not, you’d be forgiven for wondering what this is all about.
So what is it this all about?
Back in January 2012, on one the biggest websites you’ve probably never heard of, there was a clue. The /x/ (paranormal) board of 4chan, an anarchic image posting forum, featured an image, with simple white on black text declaring:
And so the first trail began. An elaborate rabbit warren of a hunt using codes and ciphers and requiring knowledge of philosophy and, cyber punk among much else to follow the clues – which included posters stuck to telegraph poles around the globe. Read more
What would the UK capital look like if you mapped its amenities only using open data? This image, created as a piece of art work for the London Open Data Summit, offers one answer.