What would happen if the UK general election were held tomorrow? Our interactive graphic shows a projected redistribution of parliamentary seats based on the latest available polling data.
It is updated regularly from data published on electionforecast.co.uk, a website run by a team of researchers from the University of East Anglia, the London School of Economics and Durham University. Read more
Guest post by Paul Hodges
The UK’s ageing population is creating major headwinds for economic growth, data published last month Office of National Statistics shows. Read more
By David Blood and Aleksandra Wisniewska
More than 2,500 people are attending the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, but how are they connected outside of the picturesque alpine town?
There are signs that the 40 per cent fall in oil prices might not deliver the expected stimulus. Chris Giles assesses the outlook for the global economy while FT reporters look at the prospects for key exporters and importers.
The global financial crisis of 2008 had a big impact on migration, with a million fewer people a year moving to another country on average after 2010 than in the 10 years before. But since 1960, the percentage of the global population classified as migrants has remained steady at roughly 3 per cent, largely as a result of population growth. The OECD last year found that if there was a cost from new migrants it was generally small.
Global consumption of farmed fish and seafood is set to exceed that of wild fish this year, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation. With the total traded fish market worth $136bn in 2013, this turning point for the industry ensures a more stable food supply but it also carries environmental risks.
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US prosecutors are offering immunity deals to junior traders in London as they try to gather evidence against banks and more senior staff in the investigation into alleged currency market manipulation. The Forex scandal is, at its core, a story about alleged wrongful sharing of information to boost trading profits. In this interactive, the FT has compiled 30 foreign exchange traders and sales staff who so far have been suspended, placed on leave or fired amid regulatory investigations that started in 2013. Read more
by Gavin Jackson and Keith Fray
On Tuesday the International Monetary Fund released its latest World Economic Outlook. A striking new finding emerges: the seven largest emerging markets are now bigger, in gross domestic product terms, than the long established G7 group of industrialised nations, when measured at purchasing power parity (PPP). Read more
By Tom Burgis, Caroline Nevitt, and Martin Stabe
Chinese investment in postwar Angola set the template for major infrastructure deals in Africa over the past decade. FT’s Tom Burgis explains Beijing’s quest for a continent’s resources. Read more
by Henry Foy, Automotive Correspondent
Henry Ford, the grandfather of the car industry and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, its current saviour (or enfant terrible depending on your point of view and stockholding) had similar views on spreading warm and fuzzy love around with rivals.
“If everyone is moving forward together, then success takes care of itself,” Ford once said. “A business that makes nothing but money is a poor business,” another Ford pronouncement, is certainly a view shared by Musk – who has said making electric cars successful is more important to him than making his company successful.
But Ford would be turning in his Detroit grave at Musk’s latest decision to make all of Tesla’s patents availble, free of cost, to its rivals.
Ford — who ironically broke the famous Selden patent monopoly that allowed the US car industry to get off its feet — loved patents. He racked up more than 150, and liked to be in control of every aspect of his cars. That control has percolated throughout the car industry since, as rivals look to corner emerging technologies.
But what exactly is in the box of secrets that Musk has opened to the world — and to his competitors? Read more
By Paul Hodges
The toy industry is going through difficult times as Lex highlighted recently. Profits at Toys R Us have halved since 2009, whilst Mattel is suffering due to poor sales of Barbie dolls. A dismal Christmas at the UK’s Mothercare led the departure of its chief executive. Read more
by Nassos Stylianou and John Burn-Murdoch
Between May 22 and 25, some 400 million people will be eligible to vote in the European Parliament elections. But how many of them will actually turn up at the ballot box?
Following 2009 treaty changes, the European Parliament will for the first time have a more direct role in electing the president of the European Commission , the EU’s executive arm, giving May’s election added significance.
Despite the increasing influence of the European Parliament, the percentage of those voting to elect its members has fallen in every election, from 62 per cent in 1979’s inaugural direct elections through to 43 per cent in 2009.
At the last European elections five years ago, less than half of those eligible voted in 18 of the 27 member states. In six countries, the turnout was below 30 per cent. In one country, Slovakia, less than one in five of those eligible voted.
Turnout in Germany, France and Italy – founding members of the common market – has eroded by more than 20 percentage points since then. In the UK, turnout was already low at 32.3 per cent in 1979 and levels have remained consistently below 40 per cent ever since.
However, several of the newer member states such as Estonia, Latvia and Bulgaria recorded a surge in turnout in 2009.
by Andrew Jack
From trade embargoes to arms blockades, sanctions have long been an extension of conflict by non-military means. Since the start of the twenty-first century, there has been growing use of “targeted” sanctions that draw on intelligence to pinpoint individuals for travel bans or asset freezes. The United Nations, the European Union and the US have announced a wide series of measures, while other organisations including the African Union and individual countries have also issued them with varying degrees of success.
There is fierce debate about the effectiveness of sanctions, with at least two organisations seeking to assess their mixed impact. Our interactive graphic draws on the global analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Targeted Sanctions Consortium, based in Switzerland. Read more
By Paul Hodges
Two remarkable global demographic developments have occurred since 1950. Yet only recently have their impact on companies and the economy begun to be properly understood.
Life expectancy has risen by 50 per cent since 1950 (red column) to average around 70 years today, due to advances in disease prevention and knowledge about healthier lifestyles.
Total fertility rates have halved over the same period (green shading). The average woman now has only 2.5 children, as increased life expectancy means large families are no longer so essential for economic survival. Read more
by Thomas Hale
Fears of an incipient housing bubble in London – and concerns about the UK property sector in general – are soaring as quickly as the prices themselves. But not all bubbles are created equal – especially when it comes to first-time buyers.
How might rising house prices affect first-time buyers? The graph below shows the average UK house price compared to how much of the average take-home pay first-time buyers spend on repayments.
The most striking thing about the graph is the way price correlates so strongly to the stretched nature of first-time buyer households until mid-2009, at which point the two lines start to move in opposite directions. Prices have begun to go up again, but first-time buyers have become consistently less stretched across the UK. Read more
(c) Getty Images
By Henry Foy
Ten things to know about the 48 hour London tube strike that began last night:
1. 3.4m people use the tube every day, according to Transport for London (TFL). Not today they didn’t.
2. The strike is all about jobs. Boris Johnson and TFL, which runs the Tube, wants to close all tube ticket offices by 2015, at a cost of 750 jobs.
3. TFL say the public support the plans. Eighty-two per cent of respondents to their survey backed the move to close ticket offices, it said. But the Rail, Maritime and Transport Union, which is taking part in the strike, said a survey it commissioned found 65 per cent of tube users felt industrial action as a last resort was justified.
4. Forty-three stations, or 16 per cent of the total station network, were completely closed on Wednesday morning, TFL said. Read more
By Henry Mance
BSkyB and BT have both committed billions of pounds to sports rights over the past two years – as they seek to protect their positions as the UK’s biggest pay-TV provider and biggest broadband operator respectively.
So has either taken a lead?
The long view starts in July 2006, when Sky entered the broadband market.
It was slowly closing the gap on BT, adding about 400,000 more customers that its rival.
However, since the launch of BT Sport last summer, BT has added more broadband users than Sky – the first time in a half-year period since 2007. Read more
On Thursday Eric Schmidt gave a fascinating talk on technological innovation, in which he warned that broad range of jobs that once seemed beyond the reach of automation are in danger of being wiped out by technological advances.
I raised two questions to neither of which in my view did I receive a good answer. Read more