Keith Fray

 

People in the UK are more likely to support a third party rather than vote Conservative or Labour in the general election next May, say pollsters YouGov. Supp0ort for Ukip and the Scottish National party has risen sharply.

 

 

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Keith Fray

 

Chancellor George Osborne presents his latest take on the UK’s finances on Wednesday. The share of government debt in national income is at its highest since the late 1960s, but Bank of England estimates back to the 19th century show that the debt share has usually been higher.

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Keith Fray

 

Ed Milliband, leader of the UK Labour party, has the lowest voter satisfaction rating this close to an election of any opposition leader in the past 40 years, according to Ipsos Mori. In this period, Margaret Thatcher had the lowest rating of those who became prime minister.

 

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Keith Fray

Estimates of Chinese gross domestic product, released this morning, showed that the rate of growth has sunk to its lowest since the financal crisis. Double-digit expansion may be a thing of the past, but China’s economy is now four times larger than it was at the turn of the century. Measuring China’s GDP using purchasing power parity, the International Monetary Fund estimates that China’s economy will be bigger than the US’s by the end of the year.

Keith Fray

As the Financial Times this week examines China’s expansion in Europe, China made an economic leap forward: new data now forecasts that China will officially overtake the US this year to become the world’s largest economy.

Measuring gross domestic product using purchasing power parity (PPPs) the International Monetary Fund now estimates China’s GDP at $17.6tn, against the US’s $17.4tn.

PPPs are an attempt – far from perfect – to account for varying price levels between countries, particularly in goods and services not open to international competition. PPPs make a big difference. According to the IMF, China’s GDP this year measured in simple dollars, making no adjustment for relative prices, is $10.4tn. Read more

Keith Fray

The UK economy has finally recovered. Today’s estimate by the Office for National Statistics of gross domestic product for the second quarter takes output (adjusted for inflation) to a new high, above the level of the first quarter of 2008*.

Hurrah. But, although welcome, this is nothing to celebrate. The government will not be ordering church bells to be rung. That the sum total of everything produced in the economy is only now returning to the levels of six years ago is astonishing. To give some context, the recession and recovery have lasted about nine months longer than the second world war. Read more

Keith Fray

Sachin Tendulkar, India’s greatest batsman, is to retire from all forms of cricket, after playing two more international matches (Tests) to take his total to 200.

This is the most Tests played by anyone, and over 30 more than the next two cricketers in line – former Australian skippers Ricky Ponting and Steve Waugh.

Cricket fans – in common with baseball nuts – love lists. And Tendulkar sits at the top of most. Read more

Keith Fray

How important is the economy in deciding the result of US presidential elections? Is it really the case that, as in the often-repeated phrase from Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, “It’s the economy, stupid!”? If so then a look at history may be useful.

A lot of commentary in this campaign has concerned the unemployment rate, usually reiterating that the only president since the 1930s to win re-election with unemployment above 7% was Ronald Reagan in 1984. The argument is usually made that, with unemployment around 8%, President Obama faces a huge task to win. Read more

Keith Fray

US President Barack Obama (L) greets Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney (R) following the third and final presidential debate at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, October 22, 2012 (SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

(SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

Two sets of impending economic data are likely to hit the headlines in the last days of the US presidential campaign: the first estimate of GDP for the third quarter of the year, out on Friday October 26, and the employment situation report for October, published on Friday November 2, four days before the election.

After the release of labour market data for September, President Obama’s camp made much of strong growth in hiring, up 114,000 compared with August, and a fall in the unemployment rate from 8.1 per cent to 7.8 per cent, taking the rate back to where it was when the president took office in 2009. Mitt Romney’s campaign countered that, if not for people exiting the labour market, the rate would be in double figures. Read more

Keith Fray

For market traders, economists, and data geeks alike, Friday is one of the highlights of the month – non-farm payrolls day.

For the uninitiated this is the release of data on US jobs growth over the previous month – more properly called the Employment Situation report - published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, usually on the first Friday of the month following the data (i.e Friday’s new data will be for August).

It is undoubtedly the most eagerly awaited monthly data by world markets and has attained a totemic status, perhaps beyond its real importance. Morning trading volumes are slim in European markets on the day of release as they await the afternoon release time (8.30am Eastern Time in the US).

Why do non-US markets care so much? Well if China continues to grow at current levels then the US will surrender its status as the world’s largest economy in the next decade (and probably in the current decade if measured in purchasing power parity terms). For now though, the US remains the bellwether of the world economy, accounting for a fifth of global output.

Should we care as much as the markets seem to? How important are these numbers? What should we be looking for? Read more

Keith Fray

The popular and oft-quoted definition of a recession is two successive quarters or more of falling output, usually referred to as the ‘technical’ definition.

It is of course not really very ‘technical’ – and surprisingly is entirely unofficial. It is an easily measurable and easily understood rule of thumb that suits headlines rather than analysis. Read more

Keith Fray

Amid talk of how governments should measure ‘happiness’, we should perhaps note that ‘misery’ – at least economic misery – may have recently peaked.

This week’s releases of inflation data in the UK and US, and labour market numbers for the UK should see the ‘misery index’ continue to fall in both countries.

This index – simply the unemployment rate plus the annual rate of inflation – has seen a modest revival of interest among economists in recent years. Read more

Keith Fray

Something has got the English media — and to some extent the population at large — in a periodic fit of frenzy. Austerity starting to bite? One banker’s bonus too many?

No, the issue is who should succeed Fabio Capello as the manager of the England football team, often referred to as the ‘second most important job in the country’. Tottenham manager, Harry Redknapp, seems to be the likely successor.

Capello may be a hard act to follow. Despite an embarrassing exit from the 2010 World Cup at the hands of Germany, he surprisingly comes top in a table of England managers since the second world war ranked by the percentage of games won. Read more