Valentina Romei

The average annual GDP growth in the UK was about 2 per cent in the five years to the first quarter of 2016, higher than that of Norway and Switzerland, which are not in the European Union. The same is true over the past 15 and 20 years.

How growth, trade, migration and more would be affected by a split with the EU Read more

Valentina Romei

The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 years old who are in work surpassed 74 per cent in the first quarter this year, the highest level since comparable records began in 1971. This is in contrast with the experience of the majority of OECD countries – including the US – where employment rates are still below the pre-crisis levels. Read more

Valentina Romei

Europeans are divided on the use of force to defeat terrorism. Nearly two-third of Dutch, Germans and Greeks say military force creates hatred that leads to more terror, but most Italians and Poles say force is the best way to defeat it.

John Burn-Murdoch

Remain led by several points in late 2015, but saw its lead eroded at first gradually, and then quickly as 2016 wore on, before Leave went ahead over the last weekThe way our model calculates the average from the remaining five polls in its basket after outliers are removed is completely unchanged, but the polls in that basket should be more representative of where the ‘true’ opinion of the electorate lies.

After this change, our poll-of-polls has Leave on 45, two points ahead of Remain. Read more

John Burn-Murdoch

Spain lead the Financial Times' predictions for Euro 2016, just ahead of Germany and then hosts FranceThe European Football Championships are upon us, and with them an eclectic mix of prediction models from media organisations, financial institutions and independent statisticians. To assuage our FOMO (fear of missing out, for the non-Millennials), the FT has joined in with one of our own.

Spain are favourites to lift the trophy, narrowly ahead of Germany and hosts France, based on our method which uses Champions League appearances and players’ market values to determine each team’s strength. This trio of teams comes in well ahead of the other 21 countries taking part.

Read on for details of the model and how it compares to the betting markets. Read more

Valentina Romei

The US and the UK have huge trade deficits in goods particularly with China, but they run the biggest surpluses in services. Financial services are particularly strong in the UK, while tourism is prominent in Spain and IT in India.

Filings by country and sector and the list of the world’s top patenting companies Read more

John Burn-Murdoch

Two weeks out from from Britain’s historic EU referendum, opinion polls are dominating the debate. The question is: are they adding or removing clarity about the eventual outcome?

Today we published an overview of some of the challenges facing pollsters as they look to demonstrate that the 2015 general election mis-fire was a one-off. What follows here is a look at how some of these issues are affecting our own poll-of-polls — and how we might deal with them — as well as an exploration of some of the alternatives to pure polling when it comes to forecasting the result on June 23. Read more

London’s population overtook New York’s in 2014 and last year surpassed its pre-World War II peak for the first time ever. Yet there are increasingly news stories about how the UK’s capital is becoming a place where people work but don’t live, or how sharply rising house prices are forcing out the poor, the young or those with families.

What is actually happening? How to square the anecdotal evidence with the fact that London adds as many people as the entire city of Bath (>100,000) to its population every single year?

 Read more

Federica Cocco

Just two weeks to go before Britons can finally stop those Eurocrats in Brussels from dictating how much cleavage barmaids can display when serving customers.

Wait – what?

Discussions over the UK’s membership of the EU and how it affects the British have been crowding the airwaves for years. Read more

Valentina Romei

Venezuela is on the brink of collapse and even a humanitarian crisis. The IMF expects consumer price rises to near 500 per cent this year and to soar above 3,000 per cent in three years- assuming there will be goods left to buy.

Valentina Romei

Eastern Europe’s population is shrinking like no other regional population in modern history. Read more

Federica Cocco

Concern about the European Union is at the highest level recorded this century.

At 30%, it’s the third most important issue behind immigration and the NHS. Read more

Valentina Romei

Half of the EU’s children aged under three are cared for only by their parents. The proportion is higher in eastern Europe and Germany, and lower in Denmark, Portugal and the Netherlands, where formal childcare is more common.

Valentina Romei

New US rules ensure that millions more people are eligible for extra pay when they work overtime. The average amount of overtime in the manufacturing sector, in which more than 12m Americans work, is 3.3 hours a week.

John Burn-Murdoch

Earlier this month Londoners voted in Sadiq Khan as mayor. The Labour candidate won 59 per cent of the vote and in so doing became the first Muslim mayor of a major European capital. But beyond the top-line figures, what do we know about how the election was won, and who voted for whom?

To answer these questions, we downloaded 140 datasets from the 2011 census, describing the demographic and socioeconomic composition of each of London’s 570 electoral wards: the same units over which the mayoral election vote was tallied. Read more


Leicester were bottom of the Premier League on April 10 2015, but a year later had climbed to the top, winning 91 points along the way. No team beginning at the foot of the top flight has ever won that many points* over the subsequent year since English league football began Read more

Valentina Romei

This week the European Commission let Italy off the hook, granting the country extra flexibility – to the tune of 14 billion euros – in its debt reduction targets for 2016.

The extra “flexibility” includes allowances for investments (0.25 per cent of GDP), for the refugees crisis (0.04 per cent of GDP) and for extra security measures (0.06 per cent of GDP). In return the Commission wants a ‘clear and credible commitment’ from Italy that the country will respect its budget targets in 2017. Read more