League tables

Chris Cook

Over the weekend, Ofqual announced it will examine the English modules that have caused so much concern lately, where many children who expected Cs were given Ds. This will focus on chunks of the new AQA English GCSE and, one assumes, take in the equivalent OCR and Edexcel* qualifications.

This is a very brief blogpost to briefly explain why this matters so much to schools (beyond the fact that they want their pupils to do well). First, we start off with a very simple chart using 2011 data: for each school, I have worked out the share of children passing English, maths and three other GCSEs with a C grade or above.

This measure (the “PACEM” metric) matters: it is the figure that is used to rank schools, and to decide whether they get shut down or not. A school where below 40 per cent of students are below the line is at risk of a forced change of management.

So I have ranked schools on this measure, bundled them into percentiles, and lined them up with the lowest league table position populations are at the left and the best are at the right.

For each percentile of schools, I have published two numbers:

  • The red section shows the share of pupils who passed on the PACEM measure, but only got a C in English. That is to say, pupils for whom a one-grade drop in results means falling below the PACEM waterline.
  • The blue section indicates children who passed with a higher grade in English. The two areas are stacked one on top of the other, so the line marking out the top of the blue section indicates the total pass rate.

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Chris Cook

UPDATE: 2 October 2012, to incorporate the latest ratings.

It’s official. Well, sort of. I’ve collected up the credit ratings that exist for the higher education sector, and all of those British universities (or university colleges) which have been rated are either prime or high-grade. (Italy, meanwhile, is not an Ivy League debt repayer.)

Institution Rating Outlook Rating issuer
University of Cambridge Aaa Stable Moody’s
 St Peter’s College, Oxford AAA Negative Fitch
 Lincoln College, Oxford AAA Negative Fitch
 Somerville College, Oxford AAA Negative Fitch
Keele Aa1 Negative Moody’s
Brunel Aa1 Negative Moody’s
De Montfort University Aa1 Negative Moody’s
Kings College, London AA Stable S&P
Lancaster University A+ Positive S&P
Nottingham, University of AA- Stable S&P
Sheffield, University of AA- Stable S&P

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Chris Cook

New Hefce data show England is experiencing the start of a market in undergraduate places with a very sudden shock. Read more

Chris Cook

Your birthday matters: children who are older when they start school as 4 year-olds outperform their peers. This is not a small effect, nor does it peter out as they get older. We can spot it easily at the national level among 16 year-olds. Read more

Chris Cook

The social mobility problem is not that there is a small number of weak schools serving a lot of poor kids. It is that poor children do badly in the majority of England’s schools. Read more

Chris Cook

An article in the TES, an education magazine, has caused some consternation – and rightly so. In a comment piece, written by a teacher, the author appears to describe being irritated at a child who is determined to get an A grade rather than a B at A-level.

That is not what the government wants this teacher to be doing. We can tell that from the incentives that this sixth-form teacher faces. The author works at a sixth form college, and if that child fails to get an “A”, it will show up in his college’s results. Sixth forms are ranked on the average grade attained by their students, and pushing a kid from a B to an A shows up in the school point score.

Were this teacher teaching a 16 year-old, however, his behaviour would be perfectly rational. The central measure for schools is the proportion of children getting passes of a C or better in five full GCSEs including English and maths.

Both regulation and league tables drive focus on that measure. There are buckets of data that reveal schools which are particularly focussed on that borderline, but as long as schools do well enough in the core measure, heads can safely ignore everything else.

As Graham Stuart, Tory chair of the education select committee has said, this measure offers no reward for pressing a child to move from a C to an A. It is rational for teachers to focus on getting children over the D/C borderline.

This measure also creates problems for those of us who follow DfE statistics. Read more