Chris Cook

Over the weekend, Ofqual announced it will examine the English modules that have caused so much concern lately, where many children who expected Cs were given Ds. This will focus on chunks of the new AQA English GCSE and, one assumes, take in the equivalent OCR and Edexcel* qualifications.

This is a very brief blogpost to briefly explain why this matters so much to schools (beyond the fact that they want their pupils to do well). First, we start off with a very simple chart using 2011 data: for each school, I have worked out the share of children passing English, maths and three other GCSEs with a C grade or above.

This measure (the “PACEM” metric) matters: it is the figure that is used to rank schools, and to decide whether they get shut down or not. A school where below 40 per cent of students are below the line is at risk of a forced change of management.

So I have ranked schools on this measure, bundled them into percentiles, and lined them up with the lowest league table position populations are at the left and the best are at the right.

For each percentile of schools, I have published two numbers:

  • The red section shows the share of pupils who passed on the PACEM measure, but only got a C in English. That is to say, pupils for whom a one-grade drop in results means falling below the PACEM waterline.
  • The blue section indicates children who passed with a higher grade in English. The two areas are stacked one on top of the other, so the line marking out the top of the blue section indicates the total pass rate.

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