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November 14th, 2007

To Dubai with astonishment

I am in Dubai this week to attend two conferences. This week is McKinsey’s annual strategy conference and next week is the FT/DIFC conference on world financial centres.

I have not been to Dubai before so I have the usual reactions of visitors to the place. It is an extraordinary accomplishment, but also a bizarre one. The rash of skyscrapers and beach hotels, including the sail-shaped Burj Al Arab, where I had dinner tonight, is an astonishing sight.

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November 10th, 2007

Man in the News: Robert Rubin

Article on Financial Times comment page 3c912d6c8eef11dc87ee0000779fd2acDusk falls on Park Avenue in Manhattan on Thursday and Robert Rubin, the former US Treasury secretary and new chairman of Citigroup, sits in his comfortable office stuffed with the evidence of a prosperous and achievement-filled life. Here are plaques from his time in government, here a framed copy of him on a Time magazine cover and there a photograph of a fish he caught in Tierra del Fuego. Mr Rubin is mulling the awkward question of how much responsibility he bears for the deep problems at one of the world’s biggest banks. Chuck Prince, Citi’s chief executive, resigned this week as it announced a debt writedown of up to $11bn tied to the US subprime mortgage crisis. Difficulties at Citi and other banks spooked markets and prompted a further lurch in the dollar. Continue reading here. Post comments below.

November 8th, 2007

Sadly, it pays to retire disgracefully

Parachutes

Column on the Financial Times comment page

On Wall Street, retirement is the new resignation.

This week, Chuck Prince “retired” as chairman and chief executive of Citigroup just before he would have been pushed. As it announced his departure, Citi said it could take a further writedown of up to $11bn due to the credit squeeze.

The week before, Stan O’Neal “retired” from Merrill Lynch as it announced a multi-billion writedown, the price of its push into risk-taking under his leadership.

The only Wall Street chief executive due for the chop who has not retired is the one who has actually reached retirement age – 73-year-old Jimmy Cayne of Bear Stearns.

Continue reading this column here. Post comments below.

November 7th, 2007

One film-making tradition that does not change

Hollywood_sign Talking of illusory media revenues, there was some gloom at the Media and Money conference about the chances of hedge funds and other investors being able to make decent returns on equity investments in Hollywood films.

One panel was full of warning noises about the returns that will be made by hedge funds that have rushed to Hollywood in the past two or three years. They have mostly placed money into "slate deals" of up to 25 films packaged by studios for outside investors. I have written sceptically about this before.

Chip Seelig of Dune Capital, which has invested in films produced by Fox Filmed Entertainment, was  pessimistic about many equity investors being able to achieve a 20 per cent equity return, which Dune regards as the hurdle rate.

"There is a constant supply of capital coming to the market that takes sub-optimal returns so I think it will continue to be difficult," he said. In other words, Hollywood still suffers from star-struck investors coming to town and having their money taken from them by old hands.

November 7th, 2007

Michael Eisner on the illusion of online revenues

To the Media and Money conference (sponsored by our rival Dow Jones & Co but they invited me anyway) in Manhattan to hear Michael Eisner, the former chief executive of Walt Disney, expound on various topics including the "stupidity" of the Hollywood writers’ strike.

"They are misguided - they should not have gone out on strike. This is a stupid strike," he declared, arguing that the revenues from online streaming and downloading of film and television shows are not yet large enough to bother about.

I thought he made a decent point about the fix that studios are now in. They have proudly announced lots of online initiatives in order to convince investors that they are adapting to the new world, and have been caught by writers wanting a piece of the action. But actually, there is not much action in financial terms, compared with revenues from traditional forms of distribution.

Apart from that, he was most interesting on the topic of branding and what he had learned from Warren Buffett on the subject. Mr Buffett, he said, had compared a great brand such as Coca-Cola or Disney to a pointillist painting. You had to focus on making every dot (or product) beautiful and then the painting (or brand) would be beautiful too.

November 6th, 2007

A grand piano and a fine experience

SteinwayThere are so few companies that manage their branding, their marketing and their sales adeptly that those that deserve recognition.

The best example I have found recently is an unusual case - Steinway, the US piano maker that still builds its finest instruments by hand in Queens, New York and sells them from its grand showroom on 57th Avenue in Manhattan.

Seeking  to buy a piano, I discovered that Steinway offers not only an alluring sales experience but also a carefully stratified set of brands and an accessible way to try out a piano at home before buying it. There are a lot of consumer brands that seek to do the same thing but fail.

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November 5th, 2007

A Prince gets replaced by a knight

P_bischoffWho? will be the reaction of many Wall Street bankers to the news that Sir Win Bischoff is temporarily stepping into Chuck Prince’s shoes as chief executive of Citigroup. Sir Win is well-known in the City of London as the former chief executive of Schroders, which he made into a pre-eminent force in mergers and acquisitions and asset management. The investment banking side of the business was sold to Citigroup’s Salomon Smith Barney in 2000. But idea that a man called Sir Win is now in charge of Citigroup will take some getting used to. His name was striking enough even before he was knighted. Now it sounds as if he is Asian.

November 5th, 2007

Goodbye to Chuck Prince, finally

Chuck Prince has at last stepped down from Citigroup. He could hardly have lasted much longer, given the pressure he was under even before sub-prime mortgage and credit problems hit the bank. I concluded in a column in April that: “If Citigroup has not enjoyed a period of peace at the top and growth on the bottom line by this time next year, he should walk the plank.” Well, there was no peace at the top and the further write-off of $8bn now expected at Citi puts paid to any hope of bottom line growth. So, as he realised before Sunday’s board meeting, he had to go. Jimmy Cayne of Bear Stearns is the only chief executive left from my original list of three.

November 5th, 2007

Jim Rogers responds to my bullishness

I got a quick response to my Saturday column below from Jim Rogers, the investor who featured in it. I am posting it with his permission because I think it is of wider interest: “Great article! A couple of thoughts: Yes, China’s stock market may well be entering a bubble phase unless something saves them soon. However the small stock market is very different from the currency market. Having said that: The US dollar is overdue for a rally against many currencies. Whenever there is this much bearishness about any asset, it usually rallies for awhile. Who knows if it will this time? If it does, I hope to move the rest of my assets out of US dollars. We have moved to Singapore instead of China since the pollution is so horrible in China. The UK was the richest, most powerful nation in the world in 1918. Within one generation, it was a mess. Within 2 generations, it was bankrupt and had to be bailed out by the IMF despite some great rallies to the upside during the 2 generations. Those who moved to London in 1807 were brilliant. Those who moved to NY in 1907 were brilliant. We will see about those who move to Asia in 2007. I hope we can discuss this again before 2107, but will write again then in any case. Jim Rogers”

November 3rd, 2007

The bears are talking bull on US decline

Column on Financial Times comment page Jim Rogers does not do things by halves. The outspoken investor who originally founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros is so bearish about the dollar, the US housing market and the US economy that he is leaving. He has sold his Manhattan townhouse and is moving to China with his Mandarin-speaking daughter. Not many have gone as short on the US as Mr Rogers but plenty of others lack confidence. Warren Buffett, the investor, has been a bear on the dollar for a long time, believing the trade and budget deficits show the US is living beyond its means. His company Berkshire Hathaway has been investing in companies overseas, including in South Korea, which Mr Buffett visited last week. Continue reading this column here. Post comments below.


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