March 4, 2008
The unknowable risk of television production
The Guardian asked various UK media luminaries yesterday what Peter Fincham, the new director of television for ITV, should do with the ITV1 channel. I was particularly struck by the reply given by Daisy Goodwin, an independent producer:
Peter has to decide how far to take ITV1 upmarket and whether he can take the audience with him. So far the changes have been risky, the wrong kind of risk because they haven’t worked.
Um, the wrong kind of risk because they haven’t worked? If all risks were judged on that criterion, then none would ever be taken because it would only be worth investing in certainties.
On further reflection, however, I think Ms Goodwin has put her finger on one of the media industry’s biggest problems. It is much harder to take a calculated risk on whether to make a programme than on, for example, whether to buy bonds because the risk cannot be modelled.
This principle was famously stated by William Goldman, the scriptwriter, as “nobody knows anything” - in other words, everyone in Hollywood, or indeed British television, is flying blind.
It may be that a lot of risks in financial markets are miscalculated - they certainly have been recently - but there are nonetheless patterns which can be followed. It is far more risky, for example, to invest in a start-up than in an well-established corporation.
Media production has less clear patterns, although studios try to reduce the portfolio risk by diversifying and by placing money in franchises and follow-ups to successful programmes.
But Ms Goodwin’s remark shows the lack of confidence even of producers who have worked in the industry for a long time in how to calculate risk. That is a sobering thought for those involved.
