The financial markets have now discounted some form of Fed easing at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, and it seems to me unlikely that policy makers will allow these expectations to be completely dashed. If that were to happen, the setback to both bond and equity markets could be quite large, and the Fed will not want to risk this with economic data tending to weaken in recent weeks. However, the slowdown in the US economy has been fairly gradual, and bears no comparison with what happened when the economy fell off a cliff in late 2008. If the Fed makes any move, which I believe it will, then it will only be fairly minor this week. But it could signal a more significant shift later in the year.
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