Daily Archives: August 9, 2010

The financial markets have now discounted some form of Fed easing at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, and it seems to me unlikely that policy makers will allow these expectations to be completely dashed. If that were to happen, the setback to both bond and equity markets could be quite large, and the Fed will not want to risk this with economic data tending to weaken in recent weeks. However, the slowdown in the US economy has been fairly gradual, and bears no comparison with what happened when the economy fell off a cliff in late 2008. If the Fed makes any move, which I believe it will, then it will only be fairly minor this week. But it could signal a more significant shift later in the year.

Gavyn Davies

on macroeconomics

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A blog on macroeconomics, economic policymaking and the financial markets. Gavyn usually writes about a key topic of the week on Sunday.

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Gavyn Davies is a macroeconomist who is now chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management and co-founder of Prisma Capital Partners. He was the head of the global economics department at Goldman Sachs from 1987-2001, and was chairman of the BBC from 2001-2004.

He has also served as an economic policy adviser in No 10 Downing Street, an external adviser to the British Treasury, and as a visiting professor at the London School of Economics.

Gavyn Davies is an active investor and may have financial interests and holdings in any of the topics about which he writes. The views expressed are solely those of Mr Davies and in no way reflect the views of Prisma Capital Partners LP, Fulcrum Asset Management LLP, their respective affiliates or representatives. This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment advice or recommendations. Readers are urged to seek professional advice before making any investments.

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