The equity markets have all enjoyed a strong bounce since the US purchasing managers’ index for August was published yesterday. Expected to decline on the month, perhaps by a sizeable amount, the PMI actually rose from 55.5 to 56.3. After a long string of weak data, this is a sufficiently large surprise to pose the question: is the US economy really slowing as much as many of us thought? Maybe I am just stubborn, but this indicator has not been enough to persuade me to change my basic view.
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