For most of my life in macroeconomics, I have tended to be very dismissive of anecdotes from the world of business. They run the risk of exaggerating the importance of specific experiences in a small number of companies, and behavioural finance warns us that human beings tend to over-estimate the significance of events which happen directly to them, rather than to others. I also believe that business people are no better than anyone else at predicting the economy (which in my mind is tit-for-tat, since they certainly believe that economists cannot do it either). With that warning, here are a couple of anecdotes from my recent meetings with Nick Evans and Spencer Skinner, my partners at Active Private Equity. Maybe they are straws in the wind.
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