Daily Archives: October 29, 2010

The US GDP data for the third quarter are a mixed bag. In some areas, they look truly encouraging; in other areas, much less so. What do they tell the Fed, which is preparing for its crucial meeting on QE, next Tuesday and Wednesday? They show an economy growing steadily, with no sign of a double dip, but at a rate which is slightly below trend, and which is clearly not sufficient to generate any marked recovery in private sector jobs. They show an economy where core inflation is stable around a 1 per cent rate. And they show an economy which is far too dependent on inventories, and far too vulnerable to increasing penetration from imports. All of that, the Fed will probably think it knew already.

Gavyn Davies

on macroeconomics

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A blog on macroeconomics, economic policymaking and the financial markets. Gavyn usually writes about a key topic of the week on Sunday.

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Gavyn Davies is a macroeconomist who is now chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management and co-founder of Prisma Capital Partners. He was the head of the global economics department at Goldman Sachs from 1987-2001, and was chairman of the BBC from 2001-2004.

He has also served as an economic policy adviser in No 10 Downing Street, an external adviser to the British Treasury, and as a visiting professor at the London School of Economics.

Gavyn Davies is an active investor and may have financial interests and holdings in any of the topics about which he writes. The views expressed are solely those of Mr Davies and in no way reflect the views of Prisma Capital Partners LP, Fulcrum Asset Management LLP, their respective affiliates or representatives. This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment advice or recommendations. Readers are urged to seek professional advice before making any investments.

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