In recent blogs in this series, I have described the immediate outlook for US GDP growth as “surprisingly strong”. By coincidence, Jim O’Neill, my ex-colleague at Goldman Sachs, wrote a piece for the FT on Tuesday in which he argued that the strength of the recovery in the US economy would be one of the surprises of the year. These assessments have been seen by some as far too optimistic. Clearly, the US economy remains plagued by excessive debt and a chronically under-employed labour market. Furthermore, in a longer term context, the present recovery has not been sufficient to reverse the slow growth rate in the US economy in the past decade. So I have been re-assessing the case for “optimism” on the US. Read more
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