Daily Archives: February 4, 2011

The US employment figures for January need more interpretation than usual, because adverse weather effects, benchmark revisions to past data, and changes to population estimates have all come together this month to cloud the picture.

Furthermore, the unemployment figures are currently telling a very different story from the employment figures, which needs explaining. Having examined all the data, my own interpretation is that the underlying state of the labour market is definitely improving, and is probably improving at a slightly faster pace than it was a few months ago.

The era in which central bankers could apparently do no wrong ended emphatically in 2008. Since then, they have attracted plenty of criticism as they have adopted a succession of unconventional policies to stabilise the world economy and financial system. But now they could be facing an even more difficult problem – a commodity price shock which simultaneously raises headline inflation while also slowing the recovery from recession. The recent orthodoxy among central bankers is that they should ignore commodity price shocks because they are quickly self-correcting. Headline inflation will rise, but core inflation will not, so interest rates can be left unchanged. But does this orthodoxy need to be revised?

Gavyn Davies

on macroeconomics

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A blog on macroeconomics, economic policymaking and the financial markets. Gavyn usually writes about a key topic of the week on Sunday.

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Gavyn Davies is a macroeconomist who is now chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management and co-founder of Prisma Capital Partners. He was the head of the global economics department at Goldman Sachs from 1987-2001, and was chairman of the BBC from 2001-2004.

He has also served as an economic policy adviser in No 10 Downing Street, an external adviser to the British Treasury, and as a visiting professor at the London School of Economics.

Gavyn Davies is an active investor and may have financial interests and holdings in any of the topics about which he writes. The views expressed are solely those of Mr Davies and in no way reflect the views of Prisma Capital Partners LP, Fulcrum Asset Management LLP, their respective affiliates or representatives. This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment advice or recommendations. Readers are urged to seek professional advice before making any investments.

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