When the first estimate of UK GDP in 2010 Q4 showed a fall of 0.5 per cent, I commented in this blog that this news was “too bad to be true”. The second estimate for Q4 came out this morning and, sure enough, the figures were – worse. Undaunted, I am still strongly of the view that this depressing quarter does not give an accurate reading on the true state of the UK economy at present. Most other information points to a continuation of reasonably healthy growth in recent months, and a strong bounce-back in the official GDP number is still to be expected in Q1. Read more
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