Daily Archives: February 25, 2011

When the first estimate of UK GDP in 2010 Q4 showed a fall of 0.5 per cent, I commented in this blog that this news was “too bad to be true”. The second estimate for Q4 came out this morning and, sure enough, the figures were – worse. Undaunted, I am still strongly of the view that this depressing quarter does not give an accurate reading on the true state of the UK economy at present. Most other information points to a continuation of reasonably healthy growth in recent months, and a strong bounce-back in the official GDP number is still to be expected in Q1.

Gavyn Davies

on macroeconomics

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A blog on macroeconomics, economic policymaking and the financial markets. Gavyn usually writes about a key topic of the week on Sunday.

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Gavyn Davies is a macroeconomist who is now chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management and co-founder of Prisma Capital Partners. He was the head of the global economics department at Goldman Sachs from 1987-2001, and was chairman of the BBC from 2001-2004.

He has also served as an economic policy adviser in No 10 Downing Street, an external adviser to the British Treasury, and as a visiting professor at the London School of Economics.

Gavyn Davies is an active investor and may have financial interests and holdings in any of the topics about which he writes. The views expressed are solely those of Mr Davies and in no way reflect the views of Prisma Capital Partners LP, Fulcrum Asset Management LLP, their respective affiliates or representatives. This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment advice or recommendations. Readers are urged to seek professional advice before making any investments.

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