The growth rate of the global economy has seen a significant and somewhat unexpected downward shift in recent months, and real GDP growth in the current quarter has probably dropped to slightly below trend. Although some of the recent data have had an ominous tone, especially in the US, Japan and China, the financial markets have remained confident that this is nothing more than a mid course correction which will soon be over. This confidence is based largely on memories of what happened last year, when a similar springtime dip in global growth proved to be shortlived. But can we confident that the same will happen this time?
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