Most of the key data on global economic activity for the month of May have been published in the past few days, and they have certainly added to concerns about the strength of the recovery from the Great Recession. The speed and extent of the decline in the manufacturing growth has been unusually severe, especially in the US, where the ISM business survey suffered its ninth largest monthly decline in its entire history, which extends back to 1948. In this earlier blog, I argued that policy makers in the US might be “out of ammo” if the economy headed towards a double dip recession. But I also said that that was not yet the most likely out-turn. Here is my take on what recent data in the US and elsewhere are telling us about the recovery. Read more
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