Daily Archives: July 7, 2011

Under normal circumstances, the decision of the ECB to raise interest rates by 0.25 per cent at a time when the European economy is slowing, and inflation seems to be peaking, would have been a very big deal. However, with the peripheral debt crisis still deteriorating, the rate increase has not really been the centrepiece of market attention today.

Instead, the main focus is on the composition of the ECB’s balance sheet, where a much larger, if slower moving, story is unfolding. The ECB is gradually being drawn into the “socialisation” of peripheral country debt, in ways which are completely outside the control of the central bank, and which could yet end in crisis.

Today, the ECB decided to continue accepting Portuguese debt as collateral for repo operations, even though Portugal has been downgraded by Moody’s this week. The ECB is increasingly taking actions which they would have deemed unthinkable two years ago. But they are trapped, and will remain trapped until there is a more comprehensive solution to the peripheral debt crisis.

Gavyn Davies

on macroeconomics

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A blog on macroeconomics, economic policymaking and the financial markets. Gavyn usually writes about a key topic of the week on Sunday.

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Gavyn Davies is a macroeconomist who is now chairman of Fulcrum Asset Management and co-founder of Prisma Capital Partners. He was the head of the global economics department at Goldman Sachs from 1987-2001, and was chairman of the BBC from 2001-2004.

He has also served as an economic policy adviser in No 10 Downing Street, an external adviser to the British Treasury, and as a visiting professor at the London School of Economics.

Gavyn Davies is an active investor and may have financial interests and holdings in any of the topics about which he writes. The views expressed are solely those of Mr Davies and in no way reflect the views of Prisma Capital Partners LP, Fulcrum Asset Management LLP, their respective affiliates or representatives. This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment advice or recommendations. Readers are urged to seek professional advice before making any investments.

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