The decline of 0.1 per cent in US real GDP in 2012 Q4 (at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate) is a definite negative surprise for financial market sentiment, which has become very complacent about the ability of the US economy to withstand the fiscal tightening due to hit the economy.
Fortunately, the underlying picture for final domestic demand is reassuring, which is why the markets have taken these figures in their stride. Today’s figures are unlikely to signal a serious downturn.
But the US economy almost never posts a negative quarter in the middle of a robust upswing, so the figures should give us some pause for thought. Furthermore, the weakness of exports, which is more than a one quarter phenomenon, shows that the global economy had become dangerously dependent on the strength of the US consumer towards the end of last year. Read more