International investors often complain that they have a hard time understanding the actions of the People’s Bank of China. The PBOC still seems to pride itself on the inscrutable nature of its policy pronouncements, rather in the style of the Fed until the mid 1990s. In order to judge what the Chinese monetary authorities are doing, it is necessary to watch their actions more than their words, and even then there is plenty of room for misinterpretation. As in other areas of Chinese public administration, power resides in secrecy.
The fact that Chinese monetary policy can seem obscure to outside observers does nothing to diminish its importance. In fact, the ongoing attempt to deflate the 2010-13 credit bubble in China is more important for the global economy than the Fed’s tapering plan, or the ECB’s thinking on negative deposit rates. A collision is developing between a progressive tightening in monetary conditions, and the inflationary psychology of the housing and land markets. No-one can be certain how this will end. Read more