Daily Archives: June 23, 2014

The markets were little moved by Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference last week, though there was a slight sigh of relief that the Fed did not follow the example of the Bank of England in shifting towards hawkishness. The FOMC’s neutral stance, for the moment, was no great surprise.

More interesting is the fact that the FOMC’s “dot plot” showed that there is still a wide disparity of opinion among committee members about the appropriate level of interest rates in 2015 and 2016.

This disparity is much greater than the difference in the individuals’ economic forecasts would appear to justify, so it suggests that the policy reaction functions between the hawks and the doves remain very far apart. This argument has been shelved during the period of tapering, when the Fed is on autopilot. But the debate is very much alive beneath the surface. And Ms Yellen still seems to be firmly in the dovish camp.

(Note: some of this debate is slightly technical. Readers not interested in the technicalities should jump to the final section on Yellen’s “balanced approach”.) Read more