GDP

The UK GDP data for 2010 Q4 were so bad, and they are potentially so important as a signal for other countries which are about to embark on fiscal tightening, that they are worth another look. Read more >>

The UK GDP figures for Q4 2010 have been eagerly awaited far beyond Britain’s shores, because the country is currently being seen as a laboratory experiment in what might happen when the rest of the world tightens fiscal policy.  Read more >>

The batch of new year forecasts for the world economy have been almost uniformly positive this year, at least from economists in the financial markets. Only a few months ago, forecasters were talking of increasing risks of a double dip recession, but the surge in risk assets since the Federal Reserve announced QE2 in the autumn has swept away most of this pessimism. JP Morgan this week said simply that “strong global growth is baked in the cake”. Although nothing in economic forecasting is that certain, there is plenty of evidence in favour of the recent outbreak of optimism.

First, the most reliable and timely indicators of global economic activity have recovered strongly in recent months. Although QE2 may have helped somewhat in this regard, it is much more likely that the pause in the global economy was anyway about to end when the Fed took its expansionary decisions in the early autumn. Read more >>

David Cameron took a gamble yesterday with his promise that the UK will in future publish official statistics for national well being. Read more >>

From now on, GDP figures in the UK will be watched with more than usual interest, because Britain is embarking upon the most significant fiscal tightening among the G7 nations. Can the economy withstand it?

Today’s GDP statistics for the third quarter, which show that the economy is growing at an annualised rate of 3.2 per cent, were much stronger than expected, and suggest that the economy is in better shape than many economists had predicted as the government is launching its fiscal retrenchment. However, the composition of the data is somewhat less encouraging than the picture painted by the headline figures. Read more >>