Monthly Archives: December 2011

Mario Draghi

Mario Draghi, December 8, 2011. Image by Getty.

Will the European Central Bank save the eurozone? This is an extremely controversial question. What is clear, however, is that the central bank is the only entity with the capacity and the calling to do so. Without the euro, the ECB ceases to exist. That is true of no other eurozone institution. It gives it the incentive to act. It is also acting on a large scale.

The resistance to funding governments by purchasing bonds on a large scale, even in secondary markets, remains strong, as Mario Draghi, the new president of the ECB made plain in his interview with the FT on December 18.

Nevertheless, he argued, the ECB took important action the week before:

“We cut the main interest rate by 25 basis points. We announced two long-term refinancing operations, which for the first time will last three years. We halved the minimum reserve ratio from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. We broadened collateral eligibility rules. Finally, the ECB governing council agreed that the ECB would act as an agent for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).”

Thus the ECB is determined to fund banks freely, at low rates of interest, thereby subsidising them directly and the governments they lend to, indirectly. Read more

I wrote a column on November 24 2011 entitled “Why cutting fiscal deficits is an assault on profits”. My point was summarised as follows: “If the government wishes to cut its deficits, other sectors must save less. The questions are ‘which ones’ and ‘how’. What the government has not admitted is that the only actors able to save less now are corporations. The government’s – not surprisingly, unstated – policy is to demolish corporate profits.”

This column was based on data for the sectoral financial balances in the UK and US. In this comment, I wish to elaborate on this theme, in three ways: first, I would like to show the charts from which my comments were drawn; second, I wish to describe the argument of a note by David Bowers of London’s Absolute Strategy Research (The Fiscal Risks to Corporate Free Cash Flow, November 17 2011), who has elaborated interestingly on this theme; and, finally, I want to consider the broader relevance of this way of thinking about macroeconomic adjustment. Read more