Monthly Archives: January 2012

What do eurozone leaders want most at the meeting of the World Economic Forum? To cease being viewed as the source of global economic threats and return to being a source of economic solutions. It is far more fun – let alone more dignified – to lecture others on their faults than to be lectured on one’s own. It is even more humiliating when those lectures are thoroughly deserved.

Unfortunately for the eurozone, there is no chance that its policymakers will escape blame in Davos. They will argue that they are on the way to a resolution. Alas, the more percipient of them, as well as their peers from around the world, know they are not. Their visit to the Swiss mountains will be a discomforting experience.

The eurozone is almost universally regarded as the source of the pre-eminent threat of an economic meltdown. The risk is that both banks and sovereigns could default, probably triggering – or triggered by – a partial or complete break-up of the eurozone. Such a wreck may still be regarded as unlikely, but it is no longer inconceivable.

Capitalism in crisis

Three years ago, when the worst financial and economic crisis since the 1930s gripped the global economy, the Financial Times published a series on “the future of capitalism”. Now, after a feeble recovery in the high-income countries, it has run a series on “capitalism in crisis”. Things seem to be worse. How is this to be explained?

What can we see in the world economy in 2012? Risks galore, is the answer.

The debt crisis of the high-income countries is already four and a half years old. Yet it shows no sign of abating, particularly in the eurozone. While emerging and developing countries are in reasonably robust condition, they would be vulnerable to an intensification of the crisis, which could hit them via several channels: trade, finance and remittances. Many countries – both high-income and developing – are in a weaker condition than they were in 2008 and would, accordingly, find it harder to respond effectively.

AP/Bernd Kammerer

AP/Bernd Kammerer

In the most recent post, I discussed the fullest analysis yet by Hans-Werner Sinn (together with Timo Wollmershäuser), president of the Ifo Institute in Munich, of the role of the European System of Central Banks in funding the balance of payments imbalances inside the eurozone.

While this post elicited many interesting comments, none, I believe, invalidated Professor Sinn’s basic thesis, which is that monetary financing of the balance of payments (ie the current account deficit, plus net private capital flows) is large, growing and decisive in sustaining imbalances inside the eurozone.

Prof Sinn’s work has attracted much controversy. But this is not, in my view, because it is fundamentally wrong (although I think he did initially exaggerate the problems created for managing money and credit in Germany itself), but because it reveals what many policymakers and observers would like to conceal.

Martin Wolf Exchange

Economic issues

About this blog About Martin Blog guide
On this blog, I will open the discussion of a topic that I am thinking about. My aim will be to elicit views of readers. I will give my own response to the question I have raised, before posting the next issue for discussion.

Martin aims to publish a post twice a week.
Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 “for services to financial journalism”. Mr Wolf is an honorary fellow of Nuffield College and of Corpus Christi College, Oxford. He is also an honorary professor at the University of Nottingham. He has been a forum fellow at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos since 1999 and a member of its International Media Council since 2006.

Martin was made a Doctor of Letters, honoris causa, by Nottingham University in July 2006 and a Doctor of Science (Economics) of London University, honoris causa, by the London School of Economics in December 2006. He was joint winner of the 2009 award for columns in “giant newspapers” at the 15th annual Best in Business Journalism competition of The Society of American Business Editors and Writers and won the 32nd Ischia International Journalism Prize in 2012. Martin's most recent publications are Why Globalization Works and Fixing Global Finance.
To comment, please register for free with FT.com and read our policy on submitting comments.

All posts are published in UK time.

Contact martin.wolf@ft.com.

See the full list of FT blogs.

Elsewhere on ft.com

Money Supply

News, data and opinions on central banks around the world

Gavyn Davies

Gavyn Davies blogs on macroeconomics and the financial markets

Archive

« Dec Feb »January 2012
M T W T F S S
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031