Daily Archives: May 4, 2012

In my latest column, I discussed the state of the UK economy. Since the column does not contain charts, I have decided to post a few on the Wolf Exchange.

Let us start with gross domestic product since 1970. The chart shows quarterly GDP at constant prices and the pre-crisis trend in quarterly GDP, extrapolated up to the first quarter of 2012. Over this period the trend rate of annual economic growth was 2.5 per cent a year. It will be seen that we do see a period of above trend levels of activity in the 2000s. It will also be seen that, since the third quarter of 2008, GDP has shown a growing negative deviation from the trend. In the first quarter of 2012, the deviation was 8.9 per cent below the long-term trend.