One of the salient characteristics of Germany’s policy-making in the eurozone crisis ‑ or, more precisely, of the German chancellor, Angela Merkel ‑ has been the view that time is on its side. In a noteworthy speech delivered in Italy on June 2 2012, George Soros, the investor and philanthropist, has challenged this notion directly.
In the penultimate paragraph, Mr Soros writes:
“. . . The German public cannot understand why a policy of structural reforms and fiscal austerity that worked for Germany a decade ago will not work for Europe today. Germany then could enjoy an export-led recovery but the eurozone today is caught in a deflationary debt trap. The German public does not see any deflation at home; on the contrary, wages are rising and there are vacancies for skilled jobs, which are eagerly snapped up by immigrants from other European countries. Reluctance to invest abroad and the influx of flight capital are fuelling a real-estate boom. Exports may be slowing but employment is still rising. In these circumstances it would require an extraordinary effort by the German government to convince the German public to embrace the extraordinary measures that would be necessary to reverse the current trend. And they have only a three months’ window in which to do it (My emphasis).”
I believe Mr Soros is right on the amount of time left. Read more