Financial results

Luxury brands from PPR to LVMH may have announced more banner results this month, but according to a new report from UK luxury consultancy Ledbury Research, their CEOs may be a lot more worried about the industry’s prospects in 2012 than they are letting on.

The study, which tracked “CEO Outlook” in 25 luxury group CEOs from the abovementioned groups to Starwood, Saks, Remy Cointreau and Netjets over the last two years, found a definite drop in optimism in recent months. Check out their chart!

Ledbury Research

Ooooh. Look at that descending line (the vertices are, obviously time underneath and optimism on the side). Scary.

When I called to discuss this, however, James Lawson, a Ledbury director, said the report “is not designed to be an exercise in fear-mongering, just an indication that perhaps we should keep an eye on things.”

“Everyone knows the 2010/11 bounceback was much stronger than generally expected, so there is this nervousness about what could happen in the future that no one really wants to talk about.” But he does!

He sited statements like the following as evidence:

Looking at yesterday’s Hermès results, which showed a 41 per cent rise in net profit, I wonder if the much-bemoaned 22 per cent stake that luxury conglomerate LVMH built up in the group has actually been good for it. This is opposed to the end-of-the-world, barbarians-at-the-gate scenario the Hermès folks were painting when LVMH initially increased its stake.

I mean this in a motivational sort of way, you understand: I don’t think that LVMH has changed the way Hermès runs its business in any meaningful way. And as the FT’s Lex column points out today,

Minority positions often result in a discount. Hermès became expensive because it was a takeout candidate. While the family’s holding company now protects it, the high valuation lingers – perhaps helped by the hope that minority shares are mopped up.

But when a brand (or a person, for that matter) perceives itself as being under attack in any way, it often forces it to:

  1. take a close look at itself and what makes it special and/or different;
  2. prove to the world that the way it has done things is the best way and that the interloper doesn’t have any right to suggest otherwise. (Whether the interloper actually has this right not is besides the point. Its mere presence hints that it might make changes even if it says it won’t).

Now, does that sound familiar? It’s pretty basic psychology. And it’s pretty much playing out before our eyes.

Don’t know about you, but it seems to me the economics of fashion are becoming increasingly abstract — and I’m not talking about the highly subjective concept of “brand value” (yes, I know there are equations to convert this into numbers, but boiled down to its essence it’s in the eye of the beholder, no?). I’m talking about celebrity endorsement investment, and a new concept I discovered last week: retail endorsement investment.

Let me explain.

Like the celebrity ambassador, retail endorsement investment says that if a very special store selects you to be on its racks, it is so meaningful in marketing terms that said store doesn’t need to pay for what it buys. Or, as the young brand who revealed this new strategy (and who shall remain anonymous) told me vis-à-vis one store that was considering stocking their product: “we’ve heard they never pay you for what they order, but that’s ok! Everyone checks out who they stock, so to be there is worth it. It’s like advertising, but actually cheaper.”

Normally, of course, a store places an order for some stock, a designer produces the order, and then the designer is paid on delivery (some lucky designers get half up front). This isn’t ideal, financially-speaking, since the designer has to front their costs, but it isn’t loss-making either.

We Are All Guilty for this Mess,” according to Suzy Menkes, fashion editor of the International Herald Tribune. In a heartfelt piece in her newspaper, my fellow Fashion Week traveller and friend took the fashion industry (herself included) to task for the very public soap opera that is the current round of designer switcheroos, in which bystanders gossip and place bets and tweet about real jobs and real people like they are characters in a reality television game.

It’s tough and honest and has people buzzing at the shows, and I recommend you read it, but I’m also not sure I entirely agree with it. I think she’s right about the situation, but doesn’t fully get to the cause.

Bottega Veneta sent an earnings notice this morning, just one day after parent company PPR’s 2011 results came out. It was good, to be sure — €682.6m in total revenue — but in my experience, it was also unusual.

After all, isn’t Bottega a PPR luxury brand? Weren’t its results covered in the parent earnings announcement?

Yes. PPR highlights the numbers for Bottega, Gucci and Yves Saint Laurent in its “luxury division”, with the rest of the high-end names (Balenciaga, Alexander McQueen, Sergio Rossi, Boucheron) bundled under “other brands”. Traditionally, the big luxury groups have avoided breaking out one brand in particular. LVMH, for example, groups its luxury brands under “fashion & leather goods” and “watches & jewellery”.

Christian Dior show

Christian Dior, spring/summer 2012. Image by Catwalking.

Christian Dior

Christian Dior, spring/summer 2012. Image by Catwalking.

The Christian Dior results are in and, contrary to what some people had predicted in March when John Galliano, Dior designer, was fired for saying bad stuff, they are good. In fact, they are very good.

Revenue for the first nine months is up 21 per cent (at constant exchange rates) to €705m against the same period in 2010 and retail revenue rose by 27 per cent (note: these are the Dior brand results, official name “Christian Dior Couture,” as opposed to the Dior Group results, which also include LVMH, which Dior owns). This is all inclusive of the period where many mentions of the brand were attached to the words “arrested” and “anti-Semitism” and “racial slurs,” you realise.

So what do we make of this? The conclusions, it seems to me, are pretty obvious:

Could the above statement be true? It seems difficult to believe, but the numbers – at least numbers published today to the industry by Bain & Co, the consulting firm, in its 10th annual Worldwide Luxury Goods Market study (on general release later this week) – seem to say yes.

Consider: according to the Bain report, 2011 is going to be a record-setting year for the luxury market. Yes, you read that right. Bain predicts the industry will increase by 10 per cent beyond its current value of sales, which it estimates at €173bn. That would be growth of 13 per cent over 2009.

What’s more, the strongest markets are not just China (as expected), but also the Americas and western Europe, with sales in Europe up 10 per cent and those in the Americas 16 per cent higher. Put another way: the two most beleaguered global areas where the jobless numbers have risen are the places where someone (tourists?) are spending. A lot. Especially on high-margin watches and jewellery.

Weird, right?

Prince William and Kate Middleton

Getty images

RWD minus 1 and slowly the sartorial chips are falling into place.

Anna Valentine, of Robinson Valentine, will reportedly make Camilla’s dress (no surprise; they made her wedding dress).

Alberta Ferretti has announced that they are making Chelsy Davy’s dress: “For the ceremony she will be wearing an aqua green bias reverse satin dress. This will be teamed with an aqua green faille silk jacket with a deep boat neck and a knot detail. For the evening party she will be wearing a one shoulder midnight blue crepe satin gown with a cut out detail on the back”. This is interesting; Ferretti is Italian, not necessarily the most politic choice for a maybe-girlfriend of Prince Harry, which suggests either Ms Davy doesn’t care about protocol, even the unwritten kind, or she’s not that interested in being part of The Firm.

I read the peppy sales figures from Burberry and LVMH about their recent financial performances around the world – but I was left wondering about what is really happening to luxury goods sales in Japan.

There were enthusiastic nods to China at Burberry, which released quarterly figures. Angela Ahrendts, chief executive, said: “Burberry had a strong finish to the year, driven by our design, digital marketing and retail initiatives, as well as good early progress in China.” At LVMH, which also released first quarter sales, there was a restrained mention of “strong momentum” in the US, Europe and Asia (that would be ex-Japan).

Halle Berry

Halle Berry -- Getty Images

The other day I was talking to Bernd Beetz, the chief executive of Coty, in his office high over Park Avenue. There were lots of pictures of him with various celebrities whose fragrance Coty makes – Sarah Jessica Parker, Halle Berry (who apparently sells incredibly well in Poland) – on the windowsills, but what really interested me was less the celeb angle than Mr Beetz’s comment that “fragrance is now a crucial building block of a brand.” In other words, it’s the base, not the capstone, of a business.

So while the traditional brand structure was: ready to wear and accessories, and then once a company had established the name, latterly fragrance (think, for example, of Chanel and Dior), now it goes: name – fragrance. Ready to wear etc. has become the icing on the cake.

Material World

with Vanessa Friedman

About this blog About Vanessa Blog guide
Vanessa Friedman's blog deals with the fashion/luxury industry from both a corporate and consumer point of view, as well as the subject of dress.



Vanessa FriedmanVanessa has been the FT’s fashion editor since 2003, and is based in New York, though she lived in London for 12 years.
To comment, please register for free with FT.com and read our policy on submitting comments.

All posts are published in UK time.

Contact vanessa.friedman@ft.com about the Material World blog.

See the full list of FT blogs.

Luxury 360

Visit Luxury 360, the FT's new online hub for creative and commercial coverage of the luxury goods industry, featuring news, views and special reports.

Luxury 360

Archive

« AprMay 2012
M T W T F S S
 123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031