Financial results

The announcement that came along with Richemont’s 2012 annual results this morning that chairman Johan Rupert (left), is taking a year off from running the world’s second biggest luxury company starting this September is by far, to me at least, the most interesting part of the statement. For a man who has built the largest watch and jewellery Group to take a year off at age 62 – which, let’s face is not so old — at a time when the exponential growth trajectory of the luxury sector has started to slow is a little, well, surprising. And leads to all sorts of interesting speculation.

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Yesterday Kering, the group-formerly-known-as-PPR, announced their Q1 results, and, as with rival LVMH, they were a little…slimmer than usual: up only 3.1% on a comparable basis and 1.0% on first-quarter 2012 (the luxury was up 6.4%, but the sports lifestyle side was struggling). To paraphrase the reaction: shock, horror, luxury slowdown! Except for one thing: the bright spot in the presentation was YSL. This is, of course, the first test of new creative director Hedi Slimane, and despite a large amount of angst surrounding his debut, at least on the part of the industry, he seems to have passed it pretty well. So how did everyone (except the guys who hired him) get it so wrong?  Read more

Ledbury Research is releasing its latest Luxury Market Insights report, which includes a CEO Outlook study tomorrow, and guess what? Those chief execs aren’t totally convinced the Chinese consumer demand for luxury, which has been slowing, will zoom back, despite what they often say.

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The rest of the luxury world may be quailing in the face of an Asian slowdown; Cassandras may crying doom! as the new Chinese political regime cracks down on bribery and obvious bling; Europe may be seeing flat or no growth, but you’d never know it to look at the Prada Group’s results. Today the Italian luxury Group, which includes Prada, Miu Miu, Car Shoe and Church’s, and is listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange, reported consolidated net revenues of Euro 3,297 million, a 29% increase (+23% at constant exchange rates) over 2011, making its earnings per share — up 41% in 2012 (from Euro 0.17 in 2011, to Euro 0.24) – the highest in luxury according to a recent report from HSBC.

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Lew Frankfort, CEO of Coach. Getty Images

Today the Harvard Business Review has come out with a new ranking of the 100 best-performing chief executives around the world, as measured by shareholder returns and growth of market capital over their leadership tenure, and guess what? Despite all that ballyhoo about the absolutely extraordinary unprecedented growth of the luxury market, etc, etc, only three luxury CEOs actually make the list. Oops.

But who are these unmasked men? (They are all men.) Lew Frankfort, CEO of Coach, who leads the industry pack by a wide margin at number 21 – the only luxury name in the top 50 (by standard definition); Sidney Toledano of Dior, at 68; and Patrick Thomas, CEO of Hermès, who is retiring this year, who comes in at 72. Chapeau, guys. Read more

Two interesting announcements this morning, both of which are worth examining: First Labelux announces instead of embracing (and chasing) hard luxury, it is exiting the segment to focus entirely on leathergoods; then Mulberry rejects the outlet model to take its bags and other products further up-market. The moves are complementary, in the context of general industry strategy. They both indicate that in the highly competitive world of leathergoods, current theory says it’s the most special, elaborate, highly worked pieces that sell.
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There’s an interesting little nugget in today’s Hugo Boss Q3 results: part of the reason for the 14% fall in net profit of the German powerhouse was due to “the switch to four equally sized collections a year,” according to chief executive Claus-Dietrich Lahrs. Yes they also talked about the slowdown in China, but they didn’t seem that bothered by it, and this seemed more significant. It made me think, once again, about the gap between the fashion show system and the shopping system – and wonder if the current financial system is not, after all, responsible for the gulf. Not because it demands constant growth (though that’s part of it), but because it gets people thinking in quarters as opposed to halves.

The conversion had associated manufacturing and delivery costs, and, of course, they had to educate the consumer about the fact there was new stuff in store. Of course, in the long run this should actually up revenues in all quarters. As Mr Lahrs said, the idea is to “incentivize customers to visit their shops regularly.” And he and his gang expect winter collection sales to be up.

It did make me think, once again, about the gap between the fashion show system and the shopping system – and wonder if the current financial system is not, after all, responsible for the gulf. We tend to see it as a creeping moral corruption, but maybe it’s simply straightforward numerical congruency: if you are reporting four times a year, it makes sense to have four collections to report on.

Granted, this is extrapolation, because not every brand is public. However, it seems to me that since most of the big, industry-driving brands are listed, it’s only logical to assume their behaviour will influence everyone’s behaviour.

Indeed, I wonder if it’s this development that is really behind the all-deliveries-all-the-time situation we are in, as opposed to the fact that everyone can see stuff on-line as soon as it is shown, that early adopters all demand the ability to buy winter coats in July, and shopping has turned into a social activity.

Maybe, instead of blaming culture and shameless marketers for our transformation into serial shoppers, we should look to the need for quarterly reports to explain the evolution from the two-show system to the four-collection cycle. It’s not nearly as sexy or morally provocative to discuss financial reporting as consumption, but – well, Occam’s razor, and all that.

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There’s a really interesting study out today from the Digital Luxury Group. Based on data from over 31 million searches on Google, Bing, Yandex and Bai du, as conducted in Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, the UK and US, it looked at which American luxury brands were the most popular globally (based on search, natch, not sales). The results would probably surprise you, especially when it comes to who’s on top, and emerging markets. Read more

For anyone still chortling over the end of the It bag – the laugh’s on you, if the folks at LVMH (who know their accessories), are to be believed. On the Q3 results conference call today both spokesperson Chris Hollis and CFO Jean-Jacques Guinoy specifically referred to handbags as engines of growth for not one but three—count ‘em! – of their brands. Read more

Today Bain released its 11th annual Luxury Goods worldwide Market Study, projecting that the luxury market growth will slow to about 10% a year, and then perhaps 4-6% for the next two years, and that all the slack won’t be picked up by China, which is also slowing. When Burberry first noted this trend, the reaction was largely “shock, horror!”, and their stock dropped 20%. However, I wonder if long-term this slowdown might not actually be a useful thing.
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