Recession

Luxury brands from PPR to LVMH may have announced more banner results this month, but according to a new report from UK luxury consultancy Ledbury Research, their CEOs may be a lot more worried about the industry’s prospects in 2012 than they are letting on.

The study, which tracked “CEO Outlook” in 25 luxury group CEOs from the abovementioned groups to Starwood, Saks, Remy Cointreau and Netjets over the last two years, found a definite drop in optimism in recent months. Check out their chart!

Ledbury Research

Ooooh. Look at that descending line (the vertices are, obviously time underneath and optimism on the side). Scary.

When I called to discuss this, however, James Lawson, a Ledbury director, said the report “is not designed to be an exercise in fear-mongering, just an indication that perhaps we should keep an eye on things.”

“Everyone knows the 2010/11 bounceback was much stronger than generally expected, so there is this nervousness about what could happen in the future that no one really wants to talk about.” But he does!

He sited statements like the following as evidence:

Derek Lam

Derek Lam . Image by Getty

Is Derek Lam, the American designer who has been creative director of Tod’s for the past six years, about to part ways with the brand? That would be nine months before his contract ends (according to Pambianco news from Italy, it ends in December).

The folks at Tod’s didn’t respond to emails or phone calls last night, and now say no comment, but they are not denying it, which suggests to me it may actually be true. If it is, it has interesting implications for the future of luxury.

Even though Pambianco says this was coming from Mr Lam’s end —interesting in itself, given how quickly the fashion world seems to have assumed it’s Tod’s dumping him — I’m not sure how big a deal this is for Tod’s. Unlike, say, the most recent departure of Stefano Pilati from Yves Saint Laurent, John Galliano at Dior or even Raf Simons at Jil Sander, Mr Lam hasn’t been trotted out as the face or vision behind the brand. Indeed, in January Tod’s launched a new line called No_Code designed in conjunction with magazine editor and Kate Moss-ex Jefferson Hack, and that relationship is more ballyhooed than Mr Lam has been.

Mr Lam’s stamp is hard to quantify. He created a capsule collection of clothes — super-luxurious leather trenches and flared trousers — that were used in the add campaign and sold in a few stores, but they were mainly just accessories for the shoes and bags. He shows up in for the seasonal presentations sometimes, and he has a say in “evolving” the classic pumps/loafers/ankle boots etc. But the “evolution” has been so gradual, compared to the usual fashion brand product switcheroos, it’s difficult to identify his contribution.
As for the reason behind the alleged split — and why it is so believable — here are some possible explanations:

  • Mr Lam wants to concentrate on his own line, the reason Michael Kors left LVMH’s Celine many years ago (and look what happened to him!). This is what Pambianco thinks.
  • Tod’s took a look at how Dior seems to be doing just fine without a creative director. Tod’s chairman, Diego Della Valle,  on the LVMH board, LVMH being owned by Dior — decided the era of the creative director was over, and this was a good way to save money.
  • Tod’s decided it wanted a much more visible, high personality creative director.

The third seems the least likely to me, as Mr Della Valle already has Schiaparelli on his plate, a dormant brand he bought a while ago and for which he needs to find a high profile designer. My guess is the answer is a combination of numbers 1 and 2, which suggests we may be in for a period of less personality-drive brands. What do you think?

Today Jacob Weisberg coined what I think should become a representative catchphrase of the 2012 US election along the lines of, “It’s the economy, stupid”and “It’s morning in America”. To wit: he noted that Mitt Romney suffers from “the affliction of excessive handsomeness.”

Who knew there was such a problem? And who knew it was a problem for Mitt Romney, who won the Florida primary this week and is expected by many to be the Republican nominee?

The question of how to balance virtual stores with bricks and mortar ones is a thorny one, with various theories fighting for dominance. Some say it’s all going virtual and point to the search for value (see the FT today and the report on shoppers deserting the high street for home pages), while others say products need to be touched to be appreciated, and point to the recent Zappos debacle as something that will also drive people back into stores. The only thing that’s clear is the lack of consensus on the best strategy going forward, something that was brought home to me pretty tangibly thanks to two recent bits of information I stumbled upon.

First, at the Financo seminar I wrote about yesterday, the question and answer session produced an interesting addendum courtesy of audience member Mickey Drexler, chief executive of J Crew. Mr Drexler asked the panellists, all of whom were bullish on their consumer future, what crystal ball they were using, since as far as he could tell, the Christmas just gone was the most discounted in memory, and foot traffic was way down at his mall stores.

Getty Images

Hillary Clinton isn’t the only politician smart enough to let her clothes do the speaking: German chancellor Angela Merkel also demonstrated great fashion fluency when she wore strict, unrelenting, unforgiving, unapologetic black for her speech to the Bundestag. Things were tough, she said, and they were going to get tougher. She wasn’t going to lighten anything up — or distract from her message — by adding a pastel or a pattern to leaven her words.

Before you dismiss this as reading too much into a dress, note: it’s rare that you see a female leader in head-to-toe black except perhaps at black tie gala events or the in the occasional sleeveless LBD (and then it’s mostly political spouses like Carla Bruni). Indeed, I can’t remember the last time I saw a female leader, or even a female cabinet minister in all-black; it tends to scare the electorate away and be perceived as not feminine or telegenic enough. It is the sort of look that, from the start of a public career, women are taught by image consultants to avoid. It’s why the Queen is always in full-on pastels and primaries.

Interestingly, however, this stereotype actually works to Ms Merkel’s advantage, as it highlights the severity of the situation and the strength she needs to demonstrate. Her clothes say in a succinct way her speechwriters never could, “If you don’t mark my words, it’s your funeral.”

Getty Images

 

A group of luxury companies, including Chanel and Dior, yesterday met Antonio Tajani, the European Commissioner for industry. The fashion houses and luxury brands entered the hallowed halls of the EU for the first time to discuss how they might be able to work together.

Wait — the first time? Yes, weird as that may sound, after two years of lobbying, the ECCIA (European Cultural and Creative Industries Alliance, the over-arching European luxury organisation made up of the groups from the UK (Walpole), France (Comite Colbert), Italy (Altagamma), Germany (Meisterkreis – Deutsches Forum für Luxus), and Spain (Circulo Fortuny) finally succeeded in getting Brussels’ attention.

You have to wonder what took them so long. After all, luxury is one of the few growth stories coming out of Europe.

Consider their stats:

  • of the top 25 worldwide luxury companies, 17 are from the EU;
  • they are responsible for 75 per cent of the global luxury market, more than €170bn of the worldwide luxury goods consumption and employed, in 2010, from 800,000 to 1 million people.
  • more than 70 per cent of the luxury goods produced in Europe are exported outside the region.

Whoa! Tax euros!

Oscar de la Renta show

Oscar de la Renta Autumn Winter collection 2011. Image by Catwalking.

Things are heating up in a funny old corner of the world: West Hollywood, where the anti-fur movement and retailers are facing off. Yesterday the City Council, or three out of its five members, voted in favour of making it the first city in the whole of the US to ban the sale of fur. They are PETA superheroes!

This strikes me as funny for a few reasons: 1) generally I don’t think of Hollywood as being very fashion-focused beyond the red carpet, where most gowns are “loaned” anyway. I think of it as a jeans-and-James-Perse-tees kind of place, although then there are those Kardashians; 2) it’s also warm, which makes it a surprising place for a fur furore to start; 3) West Hollywood is not Beverley Hills, where one might assume most fur-wearers are based, it’s Melrose Place, which is wholly younger and funkier, and home to Fred Segal, LA’s coolest boutique; and finally 4) West Hollywood is also the home of … The Fur Information Council of America.

You couldn’t make it up…

So it all came true, and PPR did, indeed, buy Italian men’s wear luxury brand Brioni. So far, so rumoured. But what does it mean? It seems to me there are two main implications to the deal:

1. Men’s wear is the new frontier.

Although widely heralded as one of the greatest men’s wear brands, Brioni itself spent several years chasing the women’s market. This began in the early noughties under then-CEO Umberto Angeloni, with ready-to-wear that looked a lot like men’s wear (think elegant cashmere suiting), and continued when the family took the helm back under Andrea Perrone, with snazzier styles by Alessandro Dell’Acqua. Mr Perrone was the founder’s grandson, but he resigned last year to make way for another non-family CEO Francesco Pesci (complicated, I know). But they all sought to tap the theory that women shopped and spent more than men.

The efforts didn’t work, and they gave up on women’s wear last August, which seems to have sat well with PPR. Indeed, in their statement, PPR was careful to call Brioni a “men’s wear-only brand,” a telling appellation. PPR has enough women’s wear brands after all; their only brand with a major upmarket men’s wear presence is Gucci. Their investment is in the guy factor – especially as it relates to China where it is the men who shop and spend more.

Vogue editors gather for Japan FNO

Tomorrow is the beginning of what is being billed as the biggest Fashion’s Night Out (FNO) ever, although it’s more like Fashion’s Afternoon Out: a noon-9pm (Saturday) shopping extravaganza in Japan launched by an evening pre-shopping gala, with some of the proceeds going to benefit earthquake relief efforts. But that’s not the half of it.

Seventeen Vogue editors will be attending as boosters, more than have ever gathered in one place before, including marquee names like Anna Wintour (US Vogue), Franca Sozzani (Italian Vogue), Emmanuelle Alt (French Vogue) and Alexandra Shulman (British Vogue). Numerous international designers are flying in to make appearances, including Christopher Bailey, Roberto Cavalli, Lucien Pellat-Finet, Derek Lam, Peter Copping and Michael Kors. And over 400 stores are planning special party activities.

Well, Japan is an important fashion market. It deserves the FNO to end all FNOs!

Except, of course, it probably won’t be the FNO to end all FNOs. It will probably be the FNO that spurs yet more FNOs around the world, putting more pressure on designers and retailers to think of super-tweetable ideas to get attention and people into their stores. And thus it points up a certain uncomfortable paradox about the event.

You know that three’s-a-trend rule? Well, note four recent events in four different countries:

1. In France, Van Cleef and Arpels announce “L’Ecole Van Cleef & Arpels,” a school for both “connoisseurs and professionals” that will offer a “non-technical curriculum” involving the appreciation of fine jewellery, its history, components, and creation.

2. In Italy, the Instituto Marangoni and Ermenegildo Zegna announce the renewal of their masters in menswear, a course designed to provide “a thorough analysis of the menswear industry, focusing on the various stages of production process until acquiring a clear overview of: the concept of suits, outerwear and shirts, the structure of the collection and the packaging of the product through to its distribution.”

3. In the United States, Parsons and the New York City Economic Development Corporation team up to create “fashion draft NYC,” an initiative that “will bring a select group of top business-minded students from around the world to New York City to network and interview with fashion executives,” and follows “fashion campus NYC, a career-building and networking event co-organized by NYCEDC and Parsons this past July to help talented students pursue fashion business careers in New York City.”

4. In the UK, Conde Nast establishes the Conde Nast College of Fashion & Design, a higher-education institution geared toward offering short courses in the publisher’s specialties, and modeled on the Sotheby’s auction house courses.

School, school, everywhere! This may even go beyond trend, to new paradigm: the luxury education. I’d like to think it began as a creative solution to two different problems, but may have important long-term repercussions.

Material World

with Vanessa Friedman

About this blog About Vanessa Blog guide
Vanessa Friedman's blog deals with the fashion/luxury industry from both a corporate and consumer point of view, as well as the subject of dress.



Vanessa FriedmanVanessa has been the FT’s fashion editor since 2003, and is based in New York, though she lived in London for 12 years.
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