At the Institute of International Finance 2008 Spring Membership Meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, which took place from March 5 till March 7, I participated in a panel discussion on “Key Issues Facing the Global Economy”. My task was to discuss the outlook for Europe (a small subcontinent on the western extremity of the Eurasian landmass). The Powerpoint presentation that served as the background for my discussion can be found here.
To a significant degree I attribute the North Atlantic financial crisis that erupted in August 2007, to the triumph of transactions-based financial capitalism over relationships-based financial capitalism. I expect the economic damage different parts of the world, including Europe, will suffer as a result of the crisis to be strongly positively correlated to their degree of overexposure to the transactions-based model.
The presentation also briefly discusses regulatory changes that are likely to come down the pike in Europe as a result of the crisis and the near-certainty of an imminent crackdown on tax havens led by a coalition of the willing in Europe and the USA.