The original Greenspan-Bernanke position that the regular monetary policy instrument, the official policy rate, should not be used to tackle asset booms/bubbles is sound. To the extent that asset booms have implications for the distribution of future outcomes for the macroeconomic stability objectives (price stability or price stability and economic growth), they will, of course, already have been allowed for under the existing approaches in the US, the Euro Area and the UK.

But the official policy rate should not be used to ‘lean against the wind’ of asset booms and bubbles beyond that, that is, in their own right. It would overburden the official policy rate and, since going after an asset boom/bubble with the official policy rate is like going after a rogue elephant with a pea shooter, Mundell’s principle of effective market classification suggests that the official policy rate not be targeted at asset booms/bubbles in their own right. (more…)

Central bankers talk about inflation more than a teenage boy thinks about sex. Perhaps they talk about it too much. In contrast to teenage boys, for whom less action would probably be a good thing, central banks would be well advised to talk less and act more. In the US, the Euro Area and the UK, the track record of inflation during the past few years has deteriorated to the point that a material loss of credibility may well be imminent for all three central banks involved - the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England. (more…)

Those of you with time on your hands and a interest in spending some it it in a basement being beaten with a rubber hose, may want to take a look at my recent Centre for Economic Policy Research Policy Insight No. 24, “Can Central Banks Go Broke?”

In that paper, I ask whether it matters if a central bank suffers a large capital loss. Can the central bank become insolvent? How and by whom or by what institution should the central bank be recapitalised, if its capital were deemed insufficient? These are relevant questions not just in Zimbabwe and Tajikistan today, but wherever central banks have taken on or may be asked to take on large exposures to private credit risk. This includes the USA, the Euro Area, the UK, Iceland and many other advanced industrial countries. (more…)

What is inflation?

Inflation is rising just about everywhere. Why is this and what can be done about it?

To get some basic concepts clear: inflation is a sustained rise in the general price level. Both the words ’sustained’ and ‘general price level’ are imprecise and in need of operationalisation. By general price level I mean a broad, representative index of consumer prices. That excludes the (headline) CPI in the UK because, like the other EU harmonised price indices, it excludes housing costs (that is, the rental cost of housing services or the imputed rental paid by owner occupiers). This makes the CPI/HICP indices unrepresentative, unless either the relative price of housing services and the goods and services included in the CPI/HICP remains constant or UK/EU citizens live in cardboard boxes provided free of charge by the Salvation Army. It may come to that, but not yet. The UK’s RPI and RPIX indices would be more representative.

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I attach no intrinsic value to national sovereignty or to any group rights whatsoever. Whatever significance or value is attributed to national rights (and group rights, minority rights, majority rights, gender rights, linguistic group rights, religious rights, ethnic rights or whatever rights) are derived significance or value - significance or value derived from human rights, that is, rights of individuals.

Given that starting point, it will come as no surprise that I support immediate outside intervention in the human tragedy that is unfolding in Myanmar/Burma. The deeply evil military regime that has ruled and destroyed that country for the past 46 years must be overthrown to safeguard the fundamental and inalienable rights of its people to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. This wicked junta now intends to prolong its miserable existence by preventing and subverting the efficient distribution of aid to the countless victims of the cyclone that struck the country on May 2. (more…)

Slovakia have done it! They have got the nod both from the European Commission and, albeit reluctantly, from the European Central Bank. Following the confirmation of these recommendations by the European Council, Slovakia will join the Euro Area on January 1, 2009. The only question mark that hung over this application for Euro Area membership was Slovakia’s inflation performance. The European Commission was unambiguous on the issue in its Convergence Report 2008: “Slovakia fulfils the criterion on price stability.”

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The Bank of England’s semi-annual Financial Stability Report, whose 23^rd instalment was published a couple of days ago, lists as members of the Bank’s Financial Stability Board, John Gieve (Chair),Martin Andersson, Andrew Bailey, Charles Bean, Nigel Jenkinson, Mervyn King, Rachel Lomax and Paul Tucker. This listing of the membership of the Financial Stability Board raises a constitutional issue and a factual issue. (more…)

Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, is correct in linking the reckless lending by banks and other financial institutions that, together with the matching reckless borrowing, lay at the roots of the current financial crisis, to remuneration structures that rewarded extreme risk taking on poorly designed financial products. The diagnosis is fine. What to do about it is less obvious. These remuneration packages did not fall to earth from the moon. They are the result of a distorted economic environment. The key distortions, unfortunately, cannot be remedied, because they have highly desirable consequences as well as the dysfunctional ones highlighted by the crisis. Let’s consider some of them: (more…)

Tim Young makes three interesting comments on my blog on the Bank of England’s Special Liquidity Scheme:

(1) The Treasury bills involved are of nine months original maturity, not one year.

(2) In the event that the borrower defaults, the public sector gets stuck with a loss if the value of the collateral is less than the value of the t-bill loan, even if the issuer of the securities posted as collateral does not default. Presumably this is much more probable than a simultaneous default, especially if the borrower is widely known to be a holder of such securities.

(3) US mortgages are not in general non-recourse. (more…)

On my way to Gatwick Airport to participate in a conference in Riga (Latvia) on economic challenges faced by the Baltic countries, I noticed a sign post for the village of Pratts Bottom. It reminded me of why I love living in this country. I am sure I really could find Little Whinging in Surrey if I looked long enough.

This naturally brings us to the question as to whether the Bank of England subsidises the banks through its newly created Special Liquidity Scheme (SLS). The scheme is a swap of one-year maturity Treasury Bills for illiquid mortgage-backed securities, covered bonds (Pfandbriefe), and asset-backed securities backed by credit card receivables. Let’s refer to this collection of bank assets as MBS (for mortgage-backed securities). (more…)