I wrote earlier today that Charles Evans – the Chicago Fed president – did not look to be in the mood for an early rate hike. A transcript just landed shows he certainly is not, writes Krishna Guha of the Financial Times
Better but not upbeat. The latest Fed beige book survey makes for happier reading than the previous one in July, but the overall message was stabilisation rather than growth, writes Krishna Guha of the Financial Times
Today’s speech by the Fed’s Charles Evans – a fairly mainstream member of the FOMC - nicely sums up the inflation debate. The Fed has to balance disinflationary pressure from a big output gap against the risk that its unconventional actions and near-zero rates start to infect inflation expectations. Evans takes a moderate position on both counts. He sounds like a man who does not expect to raise rates soon, but will keep a close eye on expectations and factors likely to influence them.
Note his warning about fiscal deficits too: if governments do not develop credible plans for medium term fiscal consolidation, central banks at some point in the not-too-distant future will face a rotten set of trade-offs.
Labour is positioning itself as the responsible cutter of public spending; the Conservatives say they are the only ones who will do it quickly. But all of their arguments are bogus, as the Institute for Fiscal Studies points out, writes Chris Giles of the Financial Times
The Coalition of Private Investment Companies (CPIC) has launched a website to clarify hedge fund numbers, strategies and uses to investors, writes Emma Saunders of the Financial Times
The Bank of England’s growth forecasts were good, but have been terrible of late. What do the most recent ones tell us about interest rates and the Bank’s view of the recession, asks Chris Giles of the Financial Times
Yuan-denominated bonds and rapid overseas expansion sound good for China, but could tomorrow lead to civic unrest? Inflation is a lesser concern than heading back into recession, as new US consumer debt figures indicate a long hard slog back to normality
The European Central Bank’s exit strategy could start sooner than we thought, writes Ralph Atkins of the Financial Times