“Low rates of resource utilisation.” That was one of the three factors the Fed has identified as preventing a rate rise for at least six months. With unemployment now at 10.2 per cent, and probably peaking nearer 10.5 per cent, “resource utilisation” is unlikely to be the trigger for an early rate increase. Indeed, if unemployment alone decided interest rate policy, we could see near-zero rates for a very long time: Fed unemployment forecasts are about 8 per cent two years from now. Read more