I ran an interview with St Louis Fed president Jim Bullard in today’s FT. Here are a few of my takeaways from that discussion, in no particular order.
1. Bullard has an above-consensus forecast for growth in 2010 and sees unemployment as likely to come down by roughly a point and a half from its peak over the rest of the year - putting it in the 8.5 per cent to 9 per cent range at year end.
2. He thinks the Fed should wait for solid monthly job gains and a decline in the unemployment rate before starting to tighten policy – but that it need not wait for unemployment forecasts to converge to their natural rate. Read more