Daily Archives: February 18, 2010

Simone Baribeau

And finally – the Fed increases a rate. Of course, it’s the discount rate not the federal funds rate, and Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, and others have been quite clear that raising the discount rate is not tightening monetary policy.

“Like the closure of a number of extraordinary credit programs earlier this month, these changes are intended as a further normalization of the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities,” the release said, echoeing written comments from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke last week. “The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy, which remains about as it was at the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).”

Argentina’s expected co-operation with the government has been confirmed explicitly by the central bank president and the economy ministry. Bank president Mercedes Marco del Pont told reporters that the Banco Central will co-ordinate its policies with the country’s Economy Ministry, while economy minister Amado Boudou announced the formation of a new economic council, which will group officials from both institutions.

Focus at the central bank will be on company output rather than inflation, said Ms Marco del Pont: “We want to focus on price stability but from a different, non-orthodox view, from the supply side.” Annual inflation is running at 32.1 per cent, according to a report by Graciela Bevacqua, the former head of the consumer price department at the national statistics institute.

Argentina also expects to receive a response from the US Securities and Exchange commission this week on the filing related to its planned debt swap, said Mr Boudou. So, today or tomorrow, presumably (Bloomberg & Reuters).

Economists in the US, have signed a petition for a hiring tax-credit… so civilised. Brad De Long, professor of economics at UC Berkeley (and well-known blogger) has posted a draft letter from a bevy of reputable economists (including Joseph Stiglitz and Mark Zandi) asking Congress to implement “additional emergency policy measures to jump-start job creation.” Their preferred measure – a tax credit.

A well-designed temporary and incremental hiring tax credit is a cost-effective way to create jobs, and could work well in the current environment. At a time when GDP is beginning to rise and demand is starting to return, private firms are likely to respond to such a tax incentive by hiring sooner and more aggressively than they otherwise would have done.

Full letter is well worth a read.

Traders are reporting interest from Asian banks in gold on sale from the IMF, says Reuters.

Gold prices have risen to $1,120 in trading today, up $20 on trading late yesterday. Analysts believe investors want to move away from paper currencies, a common move in times of uncertainty.

“Some people who didn’t want to be in dollars, now don’t want to be in euros or yen – they don’t want currencies,” David Thurtell, analyst at Citi, told Reuters. “Gold is something you can get your teeth into.”

Presumably the rises would have been higher still had the IMF not just announced plans to sell the remaining 191.3 tonnes of gold (from the 403 tonnes approved for sale in September).

Ralph Atkins

Know anybody who had to borrow €3bn suddenly over the weekend? A surge in overnight emergency lending by the European Central Bank has become a talking point in financial markets. Use of its marginal lending facility, which incurs a penal interest rate, jumped at the end of last week and stayed above €3bn on Monday or Tuesday. Was a eurozone bank in trouble? Or was the urgent need for extra liquidity just due to a technical hitch, perhaps related to the start of a new ECB monthly lending cycle?

In the event, it may have been more technicalities than trauma. Use of the facility slumped to just €52m overnight from Wednesday. Whoever need the money appears to have turned to the latest ECB regular weekly offer of liquidity instead, at which banks’ demands continue to be met in full. But minds are not totally at ease. “It’s difficult to say for sure whether this was a genuine funding issue for some banks or one particular bank, or just some adverse liquidity management,” says Nick Matthews, European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.

The ECB does not help in such cases by refusing to comment. But its silence makes sense in the long-run. Knowledge that they could turn anonymously to the ECB has probably helped many a bank out of scrapes in the past few years.

The more serious point is that this kind of scare justifies ECB caution when it comes to withdrawing the emergency liquidity measures taken since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Unlimited offers of one-year liquidity ended in December and March’s offer of six-month liquidity will also be the last. My guess is that next month’s ECB governing council meeting will also see a return to a pre-crisis auction system for some offers of three month liquidity.

Even before this week’s events, however, it was clear it would be sometime before the ECB stops meeting in full demands for liquidity in its regular weekly operations. Eurozone banks are not yet ready to have all the cushions taken away.

Consumer price inflation in Canada rose sharply to 1.9 per cent in the 12 months to January, taking the rate to the midpoint of the bank’s 1-3 per cent target range. The annual rate in December was 1.3 per cent.

The increase, the highest since November 2008, is not worrying the bank, however, and it is not likely to trigger interest rate rises before Q3. Analysts had expected a rise to 1.8 per cent.

The increase is explained mostly by the rising price of petrol (see chart), one of the factors pushing transportation up. The cost of clothing and footwear fell more sharply than the month before, offsetting part of the rise in fuel prices.

Consumer prices were up in all provinces in the 12 months to January. Core inflation also rose, to 2.0 per cent in January from 1.5 per cent in December.

  • Darling open to interest concessions on Iceland repayments – FT
  • Provisions hit Saudi banks – FT
  • IMF urges ‘orderly’ deal on Dubai debt – FT
  • Yikes. Total bank assets as % of host country GDP – zero hedge
  • Adair Turner: free capital flows not always good for emerging markets – NYT
  • UK starts to issue more capital – Money Supply
  • South African unions win cenbank policy change – Money Supply
  • BoJ governor denies inflation target after finmin comments – nasdaq
  • American banks’ corporate cash to loan ratio nears 1:1 – Economist
  • IMF to begin phased sales of remaining 200T gold – Finfacts
  • Pound hit as borrowing soars – FT
  • CIC to invest $1.5bn in secondary private equity market – FT
  • US: Agreement near on new overseer for banking risk – NYT

Russia’s central bank probably bought more than $2bn in foreign currency today to stall the ruble’s advance to the strongest level against its currency basket in almost 14 months, forex trading managers told Bloomberg. The rouble fell below 34.90 against the dollar-euro basket, breaking Bank Rossii’s floating export-friendly target band of 35 to 38. The currency remained within the 26 to 41 band the bank pledged to defend in January. Bank Rossii does not comment on daily or weekly interventions.

Related stories: Russian forex intervention likely, Feb 17

The International Monetary Fund voted yesterday to release €200.3m to Latvia, the third installment of a €1.7bn credit line approved in December 2008. The IMF has already transferred about €1bn during the program, which was also extended by nine months until the end of 2011. An EC transfer of about €500m is expected to follow in about mid-March.

“The Latvian authorities are to be commended for their strengthened program implementation, which yielded better-than- expected fiscal performance in 2009 and helped improve confidence,” Takatoshi Kato, deputy managing director of the fund, told Bloomberg. Latvian legislators have passed spending cuts and revenue increases of about 500m lati ($966.7m) in its 2010 budget to meet the loan’s terms.

Citing ‘successful fiscal consolidation’, S&P raised the country’s rating outlook to stable from negative last week. Unemployment rose to 22.8 per cent in December – the EU’s highest rate – and growth contracted by 17.7 per cent in Q4, the steepest drop in the EU.

Sterling fell today as it was revealed that the government was forced to borrow last month as tax receipts fell sharply.

Net borrowing was more than £9bn higher in January than a year earlier, as the government faced a deficit of £4.3bn compared with a £5.3bn surplus in January 2009. January is a crucial month for taxation, and this is the first year to record a deficit in the month since at least 1993.

The deficit was starkly worse than market expectations of a £2.8bn surplus for the month (more).

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The Money Supply team

Chris Giles Chris Giles has been the economics editor of the Financial Times since 2004. Based in London, he writes about international economic trends and the British economy. Before reporting economics for the Financial Times, he wrote editorials for the paper, reported for the BBC, worked as a regulator of the broadcasting industry and undertook research for the Institute for Fiscal Studies. RSS

Ralph Atkins, Frankfurt bureau chief, has been writing about European economics and politics for the Financial Times for more than 20 years following an economics degree from Cambridge. He has been watching the European Central Bank and eurozone economies since 2004. He has previously worked in London, Bonn, Berlin, Jerusalem and Brussels. RSS

Robin Harding is the FT's US economics editor, based in Washington. Prior to this, he was based in Tokyo, covering the Bank of Japan and Japan's technology sector, and in London as an economics leader writer. Robin studied economics at Cambridge and has a masters in economics from Hitotsubashi University, where he was a Monbusho scholar. Before joining the FT, Robin worked in asset management and banking. RSS

Claire Jones is Money Supply economics team writer, based in London. Before joining the Financial Times, she was the editor of the Central Banking journal and CentralBanking.com. Claire studied philosophy and economics at the London School of Economics. RSS

James Politi is US economics and trade correspondent for the Financial Times, based in Washington DC. He joined the Washington bureau in January 2008 following four and a half years as US deals correspondent covering M&A and private equity. James Politi joined the FT in London in 2000 with an MSc at the London School of Economics, and undergraduate degrees from Georgetown University and the University of Florence. RSS

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