Daily Archives: February 26, 2010

The head of the IMF is today arguing the case to redefine and expand its role.

The Fund must better detect risks that individual economies pose to the rest of the world, as well as offering liquidity early during a financial crisis, Dominique Strauss-Kahn is saying. The institution should also better monitor large, interconnected financial firms to construct a “risk map”.

The need for global oversight is obvious, but the proposals might be unpopular with existing central banks. A set-up linking the IMF directly with large banks could bypass the local central bank entirely. It is unclear whether central banks would need to agree to the new role.

It may be good timing for expansion. Prior to the crisis, the fund was struggling both for money and purpose. Now its remit might include global stability. The way to do that is to focus less on individual countries, and more on the linkages between them: “We have not paid enough attention to the linkages and spillovers between economies – including those that transmit through the arteries of the global financial system,” Mr Strauss-Kahn is telling the annual meeting of the Bretton Woods Committee. (Bloomberg)

The Dutch central bank will focus on ‘conduct and culture‘ at banks, rather (presumably) than focusing solely on reserve ratios and other capital requirements. This came out on February 8 (apologies) but a full English translation is not yet available.

So, ample room for weekend speculation on how the central bank intends to achieve their aim. Improving the integrity – not just of individuals within the system, but of the system itself – is the holy grail. Capital ratios are poor proxies toward this end.

From hints in the release, we see that salaries, dubious tax practices and business models will all be put in the spotlight. Plus, of course, the fit with impending Basel II and Solvency II frameworks.

US GDP has also been revised up this month, to 5.9 from 5.7 per cent (annual). As Calculated Risk observes, however, most of the improvement came from inventory change. Stripping those out would have seen a decline in GDP from 2.2 to 1.9 per cent over the same time period.

UK GDP was also revised upwards today, though markets were unimpressed and sterling continued its fall.

Credit to household and non-financial corporations continues to shrink in Ireland.

Private-sector credit declined by €3.2bn in January. Last year, most of the declines were explained by debt revaluation. Not this year. The €3.2bn is transactions related – i.e. the difference between repayment and draw-downs.

Household credit fell 2.2 per cent over the year. Residential mortgage lending outstanding – including securitised mortgages – fell by €269bn, bringing the annual decline to 0.7 per cent.

Reduced credit can be good or bad. If the supply of credit is restricted, but demand is high, growth will be constrained. If demand is low, however, and supply plentiful, a fall in outstanding credit is untroubling. With persistent deflation in Ireland, reduced spending – and thus reduced need for credit – would be expected.

From Moody’s:

Moody’s Investors Service said today that the breakdown in the talks between the governments of Iceland, the United Kingdom and Netherlands to resolve the Icesave dispute puts the Icelandic government’s Baa3 rating under downward pressure. This is because Moody’s believes the failure to reach a new agreement is likely to lead to an extended delay of the IMF programme, a weaker economic recovery and potentially, political instability. Overall, Moody’s believes that Iceland’s path out of the crisis now appears more difficult.

Currency markets are unmoved by today’s upward revision in Q4 GDP figures: sterling is still falling. Jonathan Loynes of Capital Economics said the growth was driven by a slowdown in the rate of inventory unwinding, hardly the basis for a strong recovery.

Thursday’s business investment figures haven’t helped. They were sharply down – 5.8 per cent – against an expectation of a rise of 0.1 per cent.

Related posts: (Overvalued?) sterling falls on very little news

  • Are yuan strengthening plans afoot? – Money Supply
  • ECB keeps lid on Greek bond data – Gillian Tett, FT
  • UK Q4 GDP revised upward – FT
  • Icesave talks collapse – FT
  • UK house prices fall first time in 10 months as tax ends – FT
  • Stable EU inflation masks country changes – Money Supply
  • Moody’s joins S&P in warning over Greece – FT
  • China faces shortage of migrant workers – FT
  • FDIC: Principal reduction for FDIC-owned mortgages? – Calc Risk
  • Jamaica agrees to IMF turnaround plan – FT
  • David Miles warns of inflation – FT
  • Rating agencies: worthless in a bull market, damaging in a bear market – Big Picture
  • How unruly economists can agree – Martin Wolf, FT

Eurozone inflation has ticked up slightly, from 0.9 per cent on an annual basis in December, to 1.0 per cent for January. But do not be fooled by apparent stability.

Inflation has slowed, or indeed dropped, for most Eurozone countries this month, offset by steep rises in Malta and Cyprus. Inflation has also risen in Ireland, Luxembourg and Belgium, although by less than their average monthly increase over the past four months.

Only Slovakia has seen inflation fall on average of the four monthly changes, and even then by a tiny amount (0.03 percentage points). By contrast, this month, inflation has fallen an average 0.26 percentage points in five of the 16-country bloc – including the Netherlands, Finland and Greece.

So this month does suggest a turning point for inflation in the eurozone, and, with it, diverging inflation trends, for this month at least.

For the EU as a whole – with a composite annual inflation at 1.7 per cent for January – the prevailing trend is less clear, although it is slightly up. Latvia and Lithuania clearly buck the trend: Latvia has stepped 1.9 percentage points (1.9!) further into deflation, more than doubling its previous rate. Lithuania has fallen 1.5 percentage points and is now in deflation. Estonia, the only other deflationary EU-non-eurozone country, appears to be heading healthily towards inflation.

NB. a small number of these datapoints are provisional and two are revised. See source data for clarification.

China is carrying out stress tests on labor-intensive industries to gauge the effect a stronger yuan would have on earnings, reports Bloomberg (itself reporting local paper the 21st Century Business Herald). Consequent speculation on the yuan has pushed forward prices up.

The yuan’s value has been kept at about 6.83 per dollar since July 2008, following a 21 per cent advance over three years, as policymakers intervened to help exporters weather a global recession.

The currency may appreciate as soon as the second quarter and end 2010 with a 2 per cent gain, Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai, told Bloomberg.

Such a move would delight Americans, and, indeed, many economists, who believe that global imbalances can only be addressed by a strengthened yuan.

Talks have collapsed between Britain, the Netherlands and Iceland about repayment of £3.4bn (€3.8bn) lost by depositors in the failed online bank Icesave, raising fears that the country will fail to meet its obligations.

On Monday Iceland rejected an offer to soften repayment terms, British officials said. It dismissed a proposed reduction in interest rates as insufficient and failed to win support for a counter-offer that one negotiator described as “fanciful”.

The breakdown in the talks dashed hopes of avoiding a March 6 referendum in Iceland, in which an original repayment deal is expected to be resoundingly rejected. A no vote would plunge Iceland into fresh turmoil, threatening the survival of the government and its flow of international financial support (more from paper).

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Chris Giles Chris Giles has been the economics editor of the Financial Times since 2004. Based in London, he writes about international economic trends and the British economy. Before reporting economics for the Financial Times, he wrote editorials for the paper, reported for the BBC, worked as a regulator of the broadcasting industry and undertook research for the Institute for Fiscal Studies. RSS

Ralph Atkins, Frankfurt bureau chief, has been writing about European economics and politics for the Financial Times for more than 20 years following an economics degree from Cambridge. He has been watching the European Central Bank and eurozone economies since 2004. He has previously worked in London, Bonn, Berlin, Jerusalem and Brussels. RSS

Robin Harding is the FT's US economics editor, based in Washington. Prior to this, he was based in Tokyo, covering the Bank of Japan and Japan's technology sector, and in London as an economics leader writer. Robin studied economics at Cambridge and has a masters in economics from Hitotsubashi University, where he was a Monbusho scholar. Before joining the FT, Robin worked in asset management and banking. RSS

Claire Jones is Money Supply economics team writer, based in London. Before joining the Financial Times, she was the editor of the Central Banking journal and CentralBanking.com. Claire studied philosophy and economics at the London School of Economics. RSS

James Politi is US economics and trade correspondent for the Financial Times, based in Washington DC. He joined the Washington bureau in January 2008 following four and a half years as US deals correspondent covering M&A and private equity. James Politi joined the FT in London in 2000 with an MSc at the London School of Economics, and undergraduate degrees from Georgetown University and the University of Florence. RSS

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