Daily Archives: May 4, 2010

Simone Baribeau

In December 2004, the FOMC voted to expedite the release of its minutes to three weeks after they announce their policy decisions (about three weeks sooner than they had been).

Recently released transcripts give us a window in to the committee’s thinking, and the decision was not made lightly. You can imagine that now – as legislators call for increased Fed transparency – the FOMC may be having similar debates about what information is it going to offer to share with the public. Read more

Earlier, we showed how the bail-out breaks down by country. This shows how it breaks down by time. The 2011-2012 boxes shows estimates of the remaining split, based on the fact that both years have similar levels of government debt maturing.

As far as we know, the debt will be drawn in parallel between the eurozone countries and the IMF, in a ratio of 8:3. The first tranche should arrive in Greece before May 19, when €8.5bn debt maturesRead more

Greek finance minister George Papaconstantinou told Ralph this morning that a Greek return to the debt markets is “likely” for 2011.

The timing is important because every euro raised in the debt markets is a euro that is either not needed from the bail-out, or that can be used to help other parts of the economy. €60.9bn of Greek government bonds are due to mature between now and the end of 2012. Read more

The Bank of England has made grotesque and interesting errors in its forecasting since the financial and economic crisis started. So says Fathom Consulting in its quarterly Monetary Policy Forum, which performs a useful service both in estimating  the effect of the general election squabble over spending cuts using a replica of the Bank’s economic model and by calculating the Bank’s cumulative errors in its forecast.

On the former, the FT covered the inevitable conclusion that the row over national insurance is a sideshow this morning. Read more

No contagion here. The Australian central bank has just raised its cash rate 25bp to 4.25 per cent. The new rate is effective tomorrow.

The move underscores the diverging fates of Europe and the Asia-Pacific. The Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledges problems in Europe, but the governor comments: “To date, there has been very little contagion outside Europe.” He adds: “Australia’s terms of trade are rising by more than earlier expected, and this year will probably regain the peak seen in 2008.” Read more

Below is a table showing the size of bilateral loans we believe will be due from each eurozone country. Figures are based on the ECB subscriptions ratio.

We are filling in the right-hand side as we see parliamentary approvals. Read more