Daily Archives: December 21, 2010

Remember how every man and his dog were speculating about an imminent interest rate hike in China?

Well it seems most analysts have now changed their tune.

From Bloomberg on Monday:

China’s benchmark interest-rate swaps fell for the third day on speculation policy makers will refrain from raising interest rates before year-end. Bonds rose.

Banks’ reserve requirements and central bank bill sales may be better tools for controlling inflation than interest rates because higher rates may attract capital inflows and pressure repayment of local borrowings, reported the People’s Daily today, citing Ba Shusong, a researcher for the nation’s cabinet.

The amount of cash lenders must set aside as reserves will rise by 50 basis points from today, the sixth increase this year.

“We don’t see a further interest-rate hike by the end of the year as the central bank already increased the reserve requirement ratio,” said Emmanuel Ng, a strategist in Singapore at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “Bill auctions, where yields haven’t been that aggressive, show there’s no rush to raise interest rates.”

Market consensus is now increasingly suggesting that China will restrict itself to quantitative tightening rather than deploy any outright interest rate hikes to cool inflation. And, if rate rises were to come, they would only be very gradually implemented.

 Read more >>

Merry Christmas, banks. If you start running low on dollars in the new year, your central bank will now be able to access the greenback via currency swaps just extended by the Federal Reserve. For several countries, anyway.

Temporary swap agreements, set up most recently in May with the ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB and Bank of Canada, were due to expire in January but have now been extended to August 1, 2011. These agreements allow a central bank to receive dollars in return for their own currency, which are then converted back at the same exchange rate at a later day (be it overnight or up to about three months). It’s a liquidity-providing, cash-crunch-prevention measure.

The swap lines are essentially unused at present. Only $60m is outstanding. So why extend? Robin, who’s writing on this for the paper as I type, says the move clearly reflects concerns about Europe. That would explain the curious coincidence of a BoE-ECB swap being set up on Friday (specifically to provide sterling to Ireland). Read more >>

Chris Giles

Keeping the show on the road became the G20′s main achievement at the acrimonious Seoul summit in November. But if you have to keep pedaling to stop the global trade imbalances bicycle from toppling, a new speech by Andy Haldane of the Bank of England demonstrates that the road ahead is uphill.

It is difficult to say much fresh about trade imbalances. Everyone knows they are big; they are a threat to the global economy; they played a part in the recent crisis; and countries fundamentally disagree over who is responsible for their existence and who should change policies to reduce their threat.

But Mr Haldane has an interesting stab at the subject, showing he has ambitions extending considerably outside his current responsibility for financial stability.

As a current account deficit must, by definition, also represent a situation where investment is greater than savings (and vice versa), he Read more >>

Lisbon might soon have more difficulty accessing debt through the markets, precisely because Moody’s is worried that it will. With rather circular reasoning, Moody’s said it was placing Portugal’s A1 rating on downgrade review because of “concerns about Portugal’s ability to access the capital markets at a sustainable price”. Yields will no doubt rise further on the news.

Moody’s is also worried about the effect of bank support on the government’s debt, as well as the impact of austerity measures. The rating looks perilous, then, since Moody’s fears will rise whether Portugal cuts or spends. Read more >>