The biggest open question for US fiscal policy in the long run is whether the political system can forge a consensus to rein in the long-term debt through some combination of spending cuts and tax increases.

But in the short-term, at least for the next ten days, it is whether the US government is facing its first shutdown since the mid 1990s.

On March 4, the “continuing resolution” funding the government for the current fiscal year, which runs through September, will expire.

Unless a deal is approved by the Republican House, the Democratic Senate, and the White House, all non-essential federal operations will have to close, which could, if the standoff is lengthy, have significant consequences for the US economy. Read more