Monthly Archives: August 2011

Claire Jones

Relations between Alistair Darling, Britain’s former chancellor of the exchequer, and Sir Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank, have been confirmed as far from cordial, as has long been suspected.

According to Labour Uncut, Mr Darling’s autobiography slams Sir Mervyn as “amazingly stubborn and exasperating”.

He [Mr Darling] is scathing about the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, who is lambasted as “amazingly stubborn and exasperating”.

The former chancellor confirms how close the government came to not renewing King for a second term in 2008 – the first time a governor would have been sacked after just one term in nearly fifty years – before they ultimately opted for renewal when they couldn’t find a suitable alternative.

That a politician regards a central banker as stubborn is not necessarily a bad thing. There are times when it is wholly necessary for a governor to say no (though Sir Mervyn’s dogged insistence that moral hazard must be avoided in the run-up to Northern Rock’s collapse was not one of them).

What is more worrying is Mr Darling’s claim that relations between the governor and Lord Adair Turner, the chairman of the UK Financial Services Authority, were similarly fraught. 

Claire Jones

Many of the world’s most senior central bankers believe monetary policy is close to the limits of what it can responsibly do.

Others disagree.

One argument is that if central banks would only commit to higher inflation, then monetary policy would be more effective in boosting demand. Proponents fall into various camps: nominal GDP targeters, those who favour a price-level target, or those who want to raise existing inflation targets.

Chris Giles

Last week I suggested the UK should offer to issue Eurobonds to help force the eurozone into early action. The idea caused the expected amount of spluttering and comments on my political naivity. But this was the point. If the British authorities cannot imagine taking part, why do they roll their eyes at Germany’s refusal to do likewise?

Today, there is further evidence to show British, German or Swedish participation in eurobonds, while politically difficult, is far from impossible. 

Claire Jones

Do today’s Bankstats data go some way to explaining why the Financial Policy Committee is so concerned about the commercial real estate sector?

The Bank of England data show that, at £2.94bn, write-offs for bank and building society loans to non-financial corporations in the three months to June were at their highest level since the Bank began collecting the data in 1993. The figure jumped from £1.08bn in the first quarter. The previous high was £2.49bn, seen in the final three months of 2009.

How much of this is accounted for by commercial real estate loans?

Chris Giles

Real geeks like me who like downloading data from national statistical websites will have come into work today all of a quiver. The UK Office for National Statistics launched its new website over the weekend promising “to make it easier for our users to find the content they are looking for“.

Apart from expected teething troubles of extremely slow running, the website shows a worrying lack of input from statisticians. For a start, selection of individual data seems to working only occasionally. Most alarmingly, when data is downloaded in Excel, the format conflates annual data, quarterly data and monthly data as below.

No one would ever want to look at data in this crazy format. Monthly data is even worse, mixing monthly quarterly and annual data in one column.

I have complained to the ONS. But in a spirit of public service, I have two ways to work around the problem.

Ralph Atkins

Ever wondered what a real European bank panic would look like? The European Central Bank today, inadvertently, provided a glimpse of what its daily liquidity monitors might show.

By mistake, the ECB posted on its website the wrong data on use of its emergency overnight “marginal lending facility” – giving a shock to anyone making their daily check of the health of the eurozone banking system.

Early this morning, the relevant web page showed eurozone banks borrowed €120.3bn – and incredible sum that would have dwarfed even the peaks of around €25bn seen after Lehman Brothers collapsed in late 2008.

The ECB’s marginal lending facility is there to help out overnight any banks that hit unexpected liquidity shortages – either because they have miscalculated needs or have problems raising funds from normal sources. It incurs a penal interest rate – currently 2.25 per cent – which is why banks only use the facility in emergencies. To avoid exacerbating any difficulties, no details are given on which banks are tapping the facility.

Later, the page was updated – but made the situation look even worse. Use of the marginal lending facility was put at €474bn. Whoops.

Only later did the ECB realise the mistake and publish the true figure – a measly €19m. In the scale of the ECB’s overall liquidity operations, that was a tiny figure.

Luckily, the slip does not appear to have caused any damage. News wires reported the correct €19m figure. The ECB did not help the nerves of anyone relying on its website, but it all proves that even the ECB can be human sometimes.

Claire Jones

Some central bankers have been as spooked as markets by the signs of late that global growth will disappoint.

Turkey’s central bank cut rates to an all-time low despite credit growth of 40 per cent, and the South African Reserve Bank’s Gill Marcus warned of more social unrest if world leaders failed to get a grip.

Officials in Australia are rather less concerned, however, that events elsewhere will hinder growth prospects at home.

Claire Jones

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Public appearances

A busy week is in store for Jean-Claude Trichet.

On Saturday, the ECB president will speak at Jackson Hole at 17:00 GMT. On Monday, Mr Trichet travels to Brussels, where he will field questions from the European parliament on how to restore market confidence (some suggestions from Ralph Atkins and Chris Giles).

The president will be joined by Jean-Claude Juncker, Eurogroup president, Jacek Rostowski, Poland’s finance minister and Olli Rehn, the European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs.  The hearing takes place at 13.00 GMT.

On Thursday, ECB executive board member Jürgen Stark is a participant in a panel on Europe and global competition.

Robin Harding

The monetary policy parts of Ben Bernanke’s 2011 speech in Jackson Hole read as a carefully calibrated attempt to aim off his 2010 speech, and send a signal that the Fed is willing to do more, but that the scope for further action is less than it was a year ago.

The main statement of the Fed’s willingness to act is:

“The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.”

Compare that with the 2010 equivalent:

Robin Harding

The first paper of Jackson Hole 2011, by Harvard economist Dani Rodrik, is about economic convergence. It’s a neat and very accessible summary of recent research by Mr Rodrik, his collaborators and colleagues about the vexed question of why poor countries do not catch up with the rich. There’s a lot in there, but here’s a brief summary of some of the most interesting and original points.

Gaps between rich and poor countries are as high as they’ve ever been, but before the financial crisis, they’d started to come down

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The Money Supply team

Chris Giles Chris Giles has been the economics editor of the Financial Times since 2004. Based in London, he writes about international economic trends and the British economy. Before reporting economics for the Financial Times, he wrote editorials for the paper, reported for the BBC, worked as a regulator of the broadcasting industry and undertook research for the Institute for Fiscal Studies. RSS

Ralph Atkins, Frankfurt bureau chief, has been writing about European economics and politics for the Financial Times for more than 20 years following an economics degree from Cambridge. He has been watching the European Central Bank and eurozone economies since 2004. He has previously worked in London, Bonn, Berlin, Jerusalem and Brussels. RSS

Robin Harding is the FT's US economics editor, based in Washington. Prior to this, he was based in Tokyo, covering the Bank of Japan and Japan's technology sector, and in London as an economics leader writer. Robin studied economics at Cambridge and has a masters in economics from Hitotsubashi University, where he was a Monbusho scholar. Before joining the FT, Robin worked in asset management and banking. RSS

Claire Jones is Money Supply economics team writer, based in London. Before joining the Financial Times, she was the editor of the Central Banking journal and CentralBanking.com. Claire studied philosophy and economics at the London School of Economics. RSS

James Politi is US economics and trade correspondent for the Financial Times, based in Washington DC. He joined the Washington bureau in January 2008 following four and a half years as US deals correspondent covering M&A and private equity. James Politi joined the FT in London in 2000 with an MSc at the London School of Economics, and undergraduate degrees from Georgetown University and the University of Florence. RSS

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