Monthly Archives: January 2012

Ralph Atkins

The European Central Bank gets criticised for many things these days. On one issue it can offer little by way of defence: the complete lack of women in its top ranks. Gender balance has been “blatantly disregarded” at the euro’s monetary guardian, according to Sharon Bowles, chairwoman of the European Parliament’s economic and monetary affairs committee. She has a point: not one member of the ECB’s six-strong executive board or 23-strong governing council is female.

One possible (sort of) excuse is that female central bankers are a rarity globally. Barely more than 6 per cent of governors globally are women, according to the central bank directory.

But the ECB has a chance to make amends. Ms Bowles’s outburst came as the parliament prepares to review candidates for a forthcoming vacancy on its executive board. ”One has to ask why important and influential EU bodies such as the ECB systemically fail to select female candidates. The argument that there are no qualified women for these positions cannot be taken seriously,” she said in a statement.

Any chance of a woman getting the job? Scarcely. As I have noted in previous Money Supply posts, Spain, Luxembourg and Slovenia are pushing their own candidates for the vacancy. All three are male. What will be decisive is whether Spain wins the argument that, as one of the eurozone’s four largest economies, it has a right to a place on the board. As far as I know, the ECB’s gender balance is not an issue.

Ralph Atkins

One of Mario Draghi’s first acts after becoming European Central Bank president on November 1 was to make clear the limitations of the ECB’s government-bond-buying programme. It would be temporary, limited and aimed purely at restoring the functioning of markets, he said at his first press conference. The ECB would not act as “lender of last resort” to governments, he said – helping reassure sceptical Germans. The impression he gave was that the ECB had serious misgivings about setting the wrong incentives for governments and would wind down the programme as soon as possible.

So how is he doing?

Claire Jones

Our week ahead email helps you track the most important events in central banking. To see all of our emails and alerts visit www.ft.com/nbe

Bernanke testimony

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak on the economic outlook and federal budget situation on Thursday. He’s up in front of the House Committee on the Budget at 10.00 local time (15.00 GMT) on Thursday.

Claire Jones

The impossibility of knowing what would have happened without quantitative easing, ie, the so-called “counterfactual”, means that estimating the impact asset purchases have had on the UK economy is more art than science.

Still, that doesn’t stop the Bank of England trying.

Weeks before announcing another £75bn-worth of asset purchases last October, the Bank published research saying that the first round of QE had meant growth was between 1.5 per cent and 2 per cent higher than it would have otherwise been.

The Bank for International Settlements has had a go too.  Its findings, published in December, found that QE had far less of an effect on gilt yields than the Bank had assumed.

In anticipation of more money printing next month, the Bank on Friday published three new papers which support its view that QE has substantially boosted the UK economy. 

Ralph Atkins

The European Central Bank is maintaining its silence over its Greek bond holdings, but the debates continue behind closed doors. On one point its governing council appears more-or-less united: the ECB cannot voluntarily accept losses on its holdings, on which it spent an estimated €35bn to €40bn. To do so would breach the European Union ban on monetary financing – central bank funding of governments. Germany’s Bundesbank has said as much publicly.

More interesting is what the ECB would do if the Greek government sought to impose losses.

Claire Jones

This from the FT’s US economics editor Robin Harding in Washington and Michael Mackenzie in New York:

The US Federal Reserve predicted that interest rates will stay on hold at least through late 2014 in a dramatic extension to the period for which it expects to keep rates low.

Claire Jones

To the chagrin of those at the Eurotower, the IMF is urging the ECB to take a hit on its €40bn in Greek government debt.

The ECB is worried hugely about the principle of it taking a loss, or foregoing profits. But there is also the threat to its own finances: the ECB, like many a central bank, does not have much in the way of a capital buffer.

How would the ECB’s finances look in the event of a Greek default? Well this article, published back in May by the FT’s Frankfurt bureau chief Ralph Atkins, goes some way to answering this question. 

Ralph Atkins

Peter Praet. Image by Getty.

Peter Praet. Image by Getty.

Peter Praet, the European Central Bank executive board member who took over responsibility for its economics department earlier this month, chose – probably wisely – a German newspaper for his debut interview.

Talking to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, the German-born Belgian sounds tough – but does not actually explicitly rule out much in terms of possible policy actions. To that extent he looks entirely in step with Mario Draghi, the ECB president.

Robin Harding

The new FOMC interest rate forecasts will be released today with the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections at 2pm. A lot of the commentary suggests that the forecasts of the first rate rise will be heavily clustered in 2014. These are illustrative examples from Credit Suisse:

Ralph Atkins

Beatrice Weder di Mauro, member of Germany’s council of economic experts, has emerged as a possible candidate to join the board of the Swiss National Bank, following the resignation of Philipp Hildebrand .

In Davos, Switzerland, today, she refused to comment on rumours about her future, reports Bloomberg.

Money Supply

Central bank blog

About this blog Blog guide
Opinions on market-moving economics and central banks around the world.


To comment, please register for free with FT.com. Read our policy on comments and include your name when submitting a comment.

All posts are published in UK time.

Contact claire.jones@ft.com about the Money Supply blog.

See the full list of FT blogs.

Editor’s choice

David Daokui Li

My lessons from life as a Chinese central banker

Euro in crisis

Fears of a Greek exit mount

The Money Supply team

Chris Giles Chris Giles has been the economics editor of the Financial Times since 2004. Based in London, he writes about international economic trends and the British economy. Before reporting economics for the Financial Times, he wrote editorials for the paper, reported for the BBC, worked as a regulator of the broadcasting industry and undertook research for the Institute for Fiscal Studies. RSS

Ralph Atkins, Frankfurt bureau chief, has been writing about European economics and politics for the Financial Times for more than 20 years following an economics degree from Cambridge. He has been watching the European Central Bank and eurozone economies since 2004. He has previously worked in London, Bonn, Berlin, Jerusalem and Brussels. RSS

Robin Harding is the FT's US economics editor, based in Washington. Prior to this, he was based in Tokyo, covering the Bank of Japan and Japan's technology sector, and in London as an economics leader writer. Robin studied economics at Cambridge and has a masters in economics from Hitotsubashi University, where he was a Monbusho scholar. Before joining the FT, Robin worked in asset management and banking. RSS

Claire Jones is Money Supply economics team writer, based in London. Before joining the Financial Times, she was the editor of the Central Banking journal and CentralBanking.com. Claire studied philosophy and economics at the London School of Economics. RSS

James Politi is US economics and trade correspondent for the Financial Times, based in Washington DC. He joined the Washington bureau in January 2008 following four and a half years as US deals correspondent covering M&A and private equity. James Politi joined the FT in London in 2000 with an MSc at the London School of Economics, and undergraduate degrees from Georgetown University and the University of Florence. RSS

Archive

« Dec Feb »January 2012
M T W T F S S
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
3031