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The big event on next week’s calendar is the European Central Bank’s governing council vote on Thursday, which is followed by ECB president Mario Draghi’s press conference.
The decision on interest rates is due out at 1.45pm in Frankfurt(11.45am GMT). Most expect no change. The presser begins 45 minutes later, at 2.30pm.
Mr Draghi is widely expected to reveal at least some of the details of the ECB’s new bond-buying programme. But there has been some disagreement among members Read more
This should be interesting. Michael Woodford – probably the world’s pre-eminent monetary policy theorist – is delivering his paper at Jackson Hole and it amounts to a rebuke of how the Federal Reserve has gone about its work of monetary easing.
Mr Woodford’s 97-page paper is deeply sceptical about the efficacy of quantitative easing and endorses the idea of a central bank target path for nominal GDP. From his conclusion: Read more
When then-IMF chief economist Raghuram Rajan used his Jackson Hole address in 2005 to warn that there were problems afoot in the global financial system, the reception he got was as frosty as the snow-covered peaks of the mountains that surround the Wyoming resort.
Mr Rajan was accused of being a party pooper at what, to all intents and purposes, was supposed to be Alan Greenspan’s farewell bash after almost two decades as Fed chair.
An icy chill could well be wafting round the symposium right at this moment. Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s executive director for financial stability is about to call on the world’s top economic officials to cast aside more than 50 years’-worth of thinking on how the global financial system should be regulated.
This from the FT’s chief regulation correspondent Brooke Masters: Read more
The first paper of Jackson Hole 2012 is a statistical review on cross-border financial contagion by Kristen Forbes of MIT. With the eurozone crisis rumbling on, it is a timely topic for Jackson Hole, although the paper illustrates rather than resolves some frustrations with the post-crisis literature on contagion.
Increasingly, financial assets tend to move in unison across borders, both in normal times and during crises. Prof Forbes describes that phenomenon in detail, especially for times of crisis, and then offers some policy conclusions on how to prevent and mitigate contagion through four main channels. Here is a crude summary: Read more