Throughout its campaign to convince everyone that the eurozone is not about to fall into deflation, the European Central Bank has drawn a distinction between two different sorts of episodes of falling prices.
The first involves a short period during which prices fall. In its monthly bulletin, published on Thursday, the ECB tries to define it, not as deflation, but as “negative annual inflation”. In the ECB’s view, a few months of falling prices will do little long-term damage to the economy. Indeed, the eurozone has already experienced this sort of deflation in the autumn of 2009.
The more dangerous sort of deflation, which the bulletin labels “outright deflation”, can, however, cause lasting pain. If what Mr Draghi has recently dubbed a “pernicious negative spiral”, triggered by ever weaker demand, was to emerge, all hope of the currency bloc’s economy returning to health anytime soon would be shot.
So how can you tell one from the other? Read more