By Hugh Carnegy in Paris
Update: Since we published this post, Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, has been in touch to say there is no significant divergence with Insee. There has been a lot of comment on this among economists in recent months so his take is important. Thanks to him for the contribution added at the bottom of the post.
Trying to work out exactly what is going on in France’s economy? Recently there has been a marked divergence between indicators from Markit and those from Insee, France’s statistics institute, with the former a good deal more gloomy than the latter.
This continues to be the case – but at least this month there is a bit of convergence, with Insee indicators level-pegging compared with December, while Markit’s figures show a three-month high.
By Robin Wigglesworth
A slew of economic news and data has come out over the past 24 hours, some good, some bad, and some outright ugly. But if one thing is clear, the economic recovery of advanced economies is far from assured. Here are five highlights, and things to keep in mind.
1: Markets believe the Fed will keep stimulating the economy
Janet Yellen, the nominee for the Federal Reserve chairmanship, will highlight now the US economy is performing “far short” of its potential at her Senate testimony on Thursday, according to prepared remarks released on Wednesday evening. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid points out that while the “tones are certainly dovish, it’s impossible to infer precise policy thoughts from her remarks”. That hasn’t stopped financial markets from rallying on the hope that the presumptive new Fed chairwoman will keep pumping money into the global economy for longer than previously expected. Read more
By Eswar Prasad, Karim Foda, and Arnav Sahu
The latest update of the Brookings-FT Tiger index shows that the global economic recovery is back on track, although it remains slow and unsteady. The recovery is being borne along by surging business and consumer confidence in advanced economies, and stabilisation in the growth of emerging markets. However, it may be premature for policymakers to declare victory as the recovery is still tenuous and just a shock or two away from turning into another slump.
Advanced economies seem to have put the worst behind them. The US economy continues to push forward at a modest pace and the UK is experiencing surprisingly good growth, while the core eurozone economies and Japan are also turning in positive growth. Across the board, private sector confidence has improved in these economies and inflation remains subdued. However, labour market performance continues to be weak and financial conditions are still mixed. The postponement of the US Federal Reserve’s tapering of its quantitative easing policies sparked a rally in equity markets but credit growth has not picked up in most advanced economies, still acting as a drag on the recovery. Read more
Sandra Pianalto, who has served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, announced she will be retiring early next year after being in the job for a decade.
Ms Pianalto’s departure may not mean too much for monetary policy. She is known for being a centrist, predictable official on the Federal Open Market Committee, backing the chairman’s view without offering positions that are either too dovish or too hawkish. Read more
By James Politi in Washington
Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, is about as outspoken as it gets when it comes to officials at the US central bank. And in Portland, Oregon on Monday — as he spoke to a conference of state retirement administrators — he waded into the heated battle to succeed Ben Bernanke as the next Fed chairman.
His main message seemed to be that the Fed did not need a “prima donna” at its helm – which naturally led to speculation about whether he was referring to Larry Summers, the former treasury secretary, or Janet Yellen, the current vice-chair, who are the two leading candidates for the post. Read more
By James Politi in Washington
Capping a week flooded with US economic data, July’s job figures are out. So, what did we learn this time around?
1) A mixed bag but the jobs report could favour a later taper
Federal Reserve officials hoping that the July jobs report would provide a decisive answer to their dilemma over when to start tapering the asset purchases are likely to have been sorely disappointed.
The data were a classic mixed bag – with the unemployment rate dropping 0.2 percentage points from 7.6 per cent to 7.4 per cent but payroll growth slowed, running below expectations.
But on the margins, the data are likely to offer proponents of a later taper just a bit more ammunition than supporters of an early taper. The Fed is likely to give more weight to the weaker payrolls “establishment” survey than the stronger but more volatile household survey, which measures joblessness.
The question for fans of slowing down asset purchases at the FOMC’s next meeting on September 17-18 is whether a slight slowing in job creation is sufficient to deter them, and it may not be. And luckily for FOMC members, they still have more than six weeks of data – including another jobs report – to make up their minds. Read more
By Eswar Prasad and Mengjie Ding
As the fifth anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers draws near and the debate about fiscal austerity continues to rage, it is time to take stock of the trajectory of debt levels in the key advanced and emerging market economies (AEs and EMs). The overall picture of government debt around the world is not a pretty one (interactive data here).
Data from the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor show that the level of aggregate net government debt in the world is expected to rise from $26tn in 2008 to $42tn in 2013. The ratio of world net debt to world GDP, a more relevant indicator of sustainable debt levels, shows a corresponding increase from 46 per cent in 2008 to 61 per cent in 2013.
The UK economy is at a standstill and opinions on how to get it going are divided. Should we rely on an aggressive monetary policy or is it time to borrow more and invest? Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator, and Chris Giles, economics editor, put forward their opposing views on what George Osborne’s Budget needs to deliver. Who do you think is right?
If a close confidant had asked Sir Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, a year ago which City institutions he would like to take down a peg or two, the answer might well have been: Goldman Sachs and Barclays.
It has happened more by accident and opportunism than by express design, but during the past six months, the governor has duly hit those banks where it hurts. Read more