Category: Central banks

Jean-Claude Trichet spoke at the LSE on Monday afternoon.

Much of what he said was a combination of a couple of speeches he gave last week, the central message being that the eurozone needs to monitor member countries’ fiscal and macroeconomic policies and competitiveness more closely, and that there needs to be a sharper stick with which to beat countries that fail to behave themselves.

Disappointingly there wasn’t much new on the disagreements between the ECB and Berlin on a new bailout for Greece. Mr Trichet is sticking to his guns – no compulsory restructuring of Greek debt.

He reiterated that “It has to be, in our opinion, a voluntary concept … Avoid whatever would trigger a credit event, avoid whatever would trigger a selective default or a default … This is our message to governments.”

And he added that “we are in the presence of a systemic aspect of the situation. I think that our advice [not to trigger a credit event or impose a default on bondholders] speaks for itself. In any case it is very strong advice for those who are taking these decisions.”

One interesting thing that the speech did throw up was the differing views on inflation of the ECB and the Bank of England.

Looking at basically the same problem – higher short-term prices of raw materials – the majority view at the ECB and the Bank come to very different conclusions.

For Mr Trichet, rising commodity prices need to be dealt with before they get embedded in inflation expectations.

“The central bank must prevent increases in the prices of raw materials from being incorporated into long-term inflation expectations, which could trigger second-round effects on wages and prices,” he said.

At the last inflation report press conference, Mervyn King said that: “Clearly if there are very unexpected movements in price levels, whether they be energy prices or commodity prices, or even the exchange rate, they will have effects on inflation.

“And if they are thought to be temporary effects, then it would not be sensible to react to try to offset them, because that would create excess volatility, undesirable volatility in output. And the remit says we should not do that.”

Other members of the MPC are more worried about inflation expectations than Mr King appears to be, although the majority are still voting for no change in rates.

There are good reasons why the ECB might be more concerned about inflation than the Bank. As Silvio Peruzzo at RBS points out, in Germany there is little sign of slack in the economy, unemployment is at the lowest since the post-reunification boom, and there is “much more scope for high short term inflation to get embedded into inflation expectations.”

On the other hand commodity prices for the Bank of England are “much less important when the inflation situation is dominated by underlying weak demand,” Mr Peruzzi adds.

It is a good point, but not everyone would agree. In the UK spare capacity indicators don’t suggest all that much slack, though unemployment is about three percentage points above its pre-crisis levels. UK inflation is significantly higher than in the Eurozone, even taking into account a hike in value added tax.

 

Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, has called on the European Union to take bolder steps towards controlling fiscal and economic policies, suggesting a long-term goal of establishing a European ministry of finance.

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi argues today in the Financial Times that policy makers should look beyond core inflation, because that measure misses something important: food and energy prices. Lex’s John Authers and Edward Hadas discuss whether the core inflation concept has had its day and whether central bankers should go even further and look at asset prices.

Chris Giles

In doing the usual due diligence on the Bank of England’s pictorial forecasts – blowing up the images on screen, getting out a ruler, measuring the YoY growth rates, estimating the skew that represents a risk-adjusted forecast and shoving all the results into a pre-prepared spreasdsheet – you can produced this horrible chart of successive Bank of England growth forecasts.

All it really shows, in the grand scheme of things, is that the Bank’s growth forecasts were pretty good before the crisis and spectacularly awful more recently.

If you strip out a lot of irrelevant information, you get the following, which I think is pretty amazing.

Chris Giles

Within central banks everyone these days is in love with macroprudential policy. Since macroprudential is synonymous with something good – akin to education and justice – central bankers will term whatever action they are taking as macroprudential.

Emerging markets reckon capital controls and managed currencies are macroprudential policy. I can imagine trade barriers could likewise be described as such. And in advanced economies, any restrictions on banks – good or bad – achieve less scrutiny if they are described as macroprudential policies.

Chris Giles

Here in Washington, rather low-key International Monetary Fund/World Bank spring meetings are getting underway. The Group of 20 is likely to have another squabble and then paper over the cracks with lots of effort spent in talking about measuring trade imbalances rather than doing anything about them. But the April 2011 Fund World Economic Outlook is rather good. I will bring you some of the more interesting themes here to supplement the news we published yesterday. First out of the traps is the Fund’s real concern about overheating in emerging economies.

The IMF points out that most emerging markets have exceeded the level of output from the pre-crisis peak and have rising levels of headline and core inflation, “suggesting that inflation pressure is broadening”.

“The issue is whether they [emerging economies] are experiencing the kind of credit boom that inevitably ends with a bust. Evidence is not reassuring in this regard”.

Eurozone price rises sound alarms at ECB – FT

Libya turmoil crushes risk appetite – FT

UK public finances in rare surplus – FT

Workers call the tune in China – FT

Europe’s reforms may come at high price – Axel Weber, FT

Brazil may be heading for a subprime crisis – FT

Ireland weighs risks of ‘burning the bondholders’ – FT

Urbanisation in Libya – Economix, NYT

Geithner’s gamble – Simon Johnson, Project Syndicate

“The strongly increased risks of central banks may act as a constraint on the room for manoeuvre in future monetary policy.” That is the worst case scenario laid out by new research from the Bank of Finland. The thoughtful, comprehensive analysis of eight central banks looks at unconventional tools adopted during the crisis, concluding: “The actions by central banks during the crisis raise a number of questions concerning exit from the measures taken, the impact of the measures, central banks’ risks and independence and their governance structures.”

The turn of the year – and the final post on this blog for 2010 – make a summary of this paper seem appropriate. Which of the unconventional tools – if any – will be discarded in 2011?

There are 5,193 more central bankers now than last year, apparently, with the world total standing at 340,342. This from data contained in the Central Banking directory 2011, published today, which suggest the 1.5 per cent rise this year is universal, evident across regions and among large and small central banks.

The expansion is a modest reversal of the trend in recent years. Central banker numbers have been dwindling, by 241,900 or 39 per cent over the past decade.

European data show that in the past five years, staff levels in Hungary’s central bank alone have dropped 38 per cent. These European data also offer some general central bank factoids: the Bank of England makes do with the fewest central bankers per head of population, 3.1 staff per 100,000 people; Malta heads up the other end of the scale, with 78.7. Germany and France employ the most central bankers, at roughly 12,000 each, compared to 1,900 for similar-population Britain. Luxembourg and Estonia have the smallest central bank staff, at 247 and 243, respectively, though both are expanding at an above-average rate.

Here’s Nomura on what it calls signs of ‘postmodern monetary policy’ in emerging Europe and the Middle East. It’s a very apt phrase describing the confusion in some central bank quarters. And it looks very familiar:

On balance, we see EEMEA central banks erring on the side of loose policy, even at the expense of higher inflation. Where there is concern about capital inflows, various policy tools are being used to decrease the carry appeal while not easing monetary conditions as much as rate cuts (or postponed hikes)…

Turkey‘s recent 400bp cut in the borrowing rate (and leaving the lending rate unchanged), while at the same time raising reserve requirements is one of the best examples of this creative policy in practice. Israel‘s efforts to ensure that implied forward rates remain at least 100bp below policy rates, or the Central Bank of Romania‘s operations in the basis swap market to minimise speculative capital flows are others. Meanwhile, the South African Reserve Bank appears to be maintaining an easing bias, despite real rates approaching negative territory, as it attempts to balance its concerns about the strength of the currency with stimulus being provided via looser fiscal policy. And in Hungary, the need for risk premia to secure inflation expectations against government policy changes is now leading to rate hikes, where none would have been expected otherwise…

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Chris Giles Chris Giles has been the economics editor of the Financial Times since 2004. Based in London, he writes about international economic trends and the British economy. Before reporting economics for the Financial Times, he wrote editorials for the paper, reported for the BBC, worked as a regulator of the broadcasting industry and undertook research for the Institute for Fiscal Studies. RSS

Ralph Atkins, Frankfurt bureau chief, has been writing about European economics and politics for the Financial Times for more than 20 years following an economics degree from Cambridge. He has been watching the European Central Bank and eurozone economies since 2004. He has previously worked in London, Bonn, Berlin, Jerusalem and Brussels. RSS

Robin Harding is the FT's US economics editor, based in Washington. Prior to this, he was based in Tokyo, covering the Bank of Japan and Japan's technology sector, and in London as an economics leader writer. Robin studied economics at Cambridge and has a masters in economics from Hitotsubashi University, where he was a Monbusho scholar. Before joining the FT, Robin worked in asset management and banking. RSS

Claire Jones is Money Supply economics team writer, based in London. Before joining the Financial Times, she was the editor of the Central Banking journal and CentralBanking.com. Claire studied philosophy and economics at the London School of Economics. RSS

James Politi is US economics and trade correspondent for the Financial Times, based in Washington DC. He joined the Washington bureau in January 2008 following four and a half years as US deals correspondent covering M&A and private equity. James Politi joined the FT in London in 2000 with an MSc at the London School of Economics, and undergraduate degrees from Georgetown University and the University of Florence. RSS

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