Holdings of sovereign debt will be included in European stress tests, which will include country-specific adverse scenarios designed by the ECB. There was some doubt whether sovereign debt would be included after Cebs, the EBA’s predecessor, was reported in November saying it wasn’t “clear that a repeat of the sovereign risk sensitivity analysis will be necessary in 2011″. How times change.
Collaboration on methodology will begin tomorrow (Friday) between the EBA and individual countries’ supervisory bodies. Scenarios plus the sample of banks will be published March 18. Broad principles of stress test methodology are expected in April. Several months will be needed to complete the tests, which will be published in June. (Note: new US stress tests, which are due for completion this month, will not be published.) And what will happen should a bank fail? Read more
European stress tests will be held in the first half of this year and published in the summer, the European Banking Association* has announced. They will be accompanied by a review of liquidity funding risks:
The EBA will, as part of its regular cycle of risk assessments, initiate a separate thematic review of liquidity funding risks across the EU banking sector in the first quarter of 2011. The EBA will use this internal review to inform supervisory authorities about areas of vulnerability in relation to liquidity risk.
It looks as though the liquidity assessment will remain private, though the stress tests will be published. We’ve asked the EBA for confirmation and will update you.
No mention of the sovereign holdings part being scrapped; perhaps, in light of current shenanigans in Europe, the EBA felt they might be needed. Read more
To add to the prevailing sense of deja vu, regulators in both the US and Europe are this week discussing new banking stress tests. There is a significant difference with the new tests, however: they are to be part of regular, ongoing scenario analyses, and the results in the US, at least, will remain private. The first round of stress tests were public and aimed at reassurance.
The Federal Reserve is expected to start analysing data provided by 19 large banks this week, to work out how their balance sheets would withstand a variety of new shocks. “Only banks that have repaid government bail-outs and can prove a lifted dividend will not compromise their safety will be allowed to return cash to investors,” write Francesco Guerrera and Tom Braithwaite. “The Fed will also decide whether banks are on course to meet more stringent rules on capital requirements, agreed by the international Basel committee last year.” Tests are expected to be completed by March and are expected to be similar in content to those of May 2009. Read more