The European Central Bank has revealed the details of arguably the most important element of the package of extraordinary monetary policy measures it unveiled last month to rid the eurozone of the threat of deflation.
On Thursday, the ECB announced exactly how its targeted longer-term refinancing operation, or the TLTRO, will work. Earlier forward guidance that rates were likely to remain on hold until the end of 2016 was watered down by Mario Draghi, ECB president, possibly in the hope that this would raise the take-up of the TLTRO funds.
Mr Draghi also revealed that banks would be able to borrow up to €1trn from the central bank, should they smash targets, or benchmarks, set by the ECB. Lenders are already able to borrow an initial amount of $400bn in two auctions, scheduled for September and December. The €400bn figure corresponds to 7 per cent of their lending books to businesses and households, excluding mortgage loans. Read more
Last month, students from four continents joined forces to call for reform of the economics curriculum.
In an open letter, the students said they wanted their courses to delve into a wider range of economics theories and methodologies than the standard neo-classical model that dominates undergraduate teaching, and to learn more about the implications of policy-making.
Speaking to those students was a heartening experience – all of them struck me as extremely thoughtful and articulate. Their desire for reform seemed driven by a curiosity about the world and what economics could do to improve it.
I suspect they’ll be encouraged by comments made in a speech today by the similarly thoughtful and articulate Benoît Cœuré, who sits on the European Central Bank’s executive board. Read more
Throughout its campaign to convince everyone that the eurozone is not about to fall into deflation, the European Central Bank has drawn a distinction between two different sorts of episodes of falling prices.
The first involves a short period during which prices fall. In its monthly bulletin, published on Thursday, the ECB tries to define it, not as deflation, but as “negative annual inflation”. In the ECB’s view, a few months of falling prices will do little long-term damage to the economy. Indeed, the eurozone has already experienced this sort of deflation in the autumn of 2009.
The more dangerous sort of deflation, which the bulletin labels “outright deflation”, can, however, cause lasting pain. If what Mr Draghi has recently dubbed a “pernicious negative spiral”, triggered by ever weaker demand, was to emerge, all hope of the currency bloc’s economy returning to health anytime soon would be shot.
So how can you tell one from the other? Read more
It’s crunch time for the European Central Bank. After more than six months of jawboning, pretty much every seasoned ECB watcher thinks the governing council is finally going to ease monetary policy on Thursday.
Disappointing growth, worryingly weak inflation, and the rise of anti-establishment parties in the European Parliamentary elections have only added to the sense that rate-setters must do something to stave off the threat of deflation and help stimulate lending in the real economy. What can we expect from the ECB and how will it work? Read more
Lithuania looks set to become the 19th member of the euro in January 2015 having met all the requirements demanded by the European Commission. Were the Baltic state to join the single currency, as is widely expected, that would trigger a big change in the way the European Central Bank’s governing council votes on monetary policy. Read more
For those who have followed the scrap between Raghuram Rajan, governor of the Reserve Bank of India, and his counterparts at the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve on the ill-effects of Fed tapering, Benoît Cœuré’s thoughtful speech today is worth a read.
In Mr Rajan’s view, the way the Fed conducts its monetary policy is irresponsible. The US central bank acts merely on the basis of national interest, with scant regard for the ramifications of mass dollar printing in a world where the dollar remains the dominant reserve currency.
These attacks have usually been parried with remarks that central banks such as the Fed (and, given its role as issuer of the only other real reserve currency, the ECB) have little choice but to act within the national interest given the scope of their mandates. From Mr Coeure’s boss Mario Draghi earlier this year:
Draghi: Mr Rajan is really an excellent economist. What one would have to demonstrate to speak of selfishness is the following. One would have to show that monetary policy actions within the United States, the ECB and so on were decided for reasons other than for the sake of the mandate and that, as a result, they were harmful to other countries. As I said, the priority for all of us is compliance with our mandate, which for us is maintaining price stability and for the Federal Reserve Board is the dual mandate.
Mr Cœuré’s speech is interesting as, while he does not go so far as to side with Mr Rajan, he is not so intellectually dishonest as to say that all is fine with the pre-crisis orthodoxy. In short, this said that if everyone just sticks to their inflation targeting mandate and flexible exchange rates everything will be just great. Read more
Digging into the details
One of the most important financial events of this year is the European Central Bank’s Asset Quality Review. The review is the opening act in the central bank’s health check of the eurozone’s biggest lenders, which goes by the glamorous title of the Comprehensive Assessment.
The ECB today published details of the second phase of its AQR, which will see national regulators, under the scrutiny of the ECB, scour the balance sheets of the region’s 128 biggest lenders to see what’s lurking in the darkest parts of their loan books. Unlike most earlier exercises, the exercise will focus on those murkiest of corners — what are known as lenders’ Level 3 assets.
Here’s a quick Q&A on what that entails. Read more
Forward guidance is central banking’s latest fad. Since the nadir of the crisis, all four of the major central banks have adopted their own version of it.
But is this fashion for keeps? That depends on whether the policy works.
Guidance involves saying what you’re going to do, before doing it. This, central banks hope, will temper markets’ uncertainty about what happens to interest rates.
Whether it works or not, then, depends on how much markets trust policy makers to do what they say they’re going to do. If investors think policy makers are lying, or central banks lose credibility by reneging on their pledges, then the guidance could harm reputations for a long time to come.
So does it work? According to a paper, published by the Bank for International Settlements today, it does. Well, sort of.
Yet the research also flags that if forward guidance does succeed, it could end up doing more harm than good. Read more
January’s eurozone inflation number, out earlier on Monday, showed price pressures in the currency bloc are not quite as subdued as first feared, registering 0.8 per cent – a touch higher than Eurostat’s initial estimate of 0.7 per cent.
It’s hardly a game changer: inflation is still less than half the 2 per cent target. But the slightly better figure will reduce pressure on the European Central Bank a little after it faced renewed calls to ease policy following the release of the flash estimate.
However, the detail of this morning’s release suggest disinflationary pressures might be even worse than feared. This excellent chart from Marchel Alexandrovich of Jefferies International shows why: Read more
Welcome to our live coverage of ECB president Mario Draghi monthly press conference. Earlier, to the surprise of some, the ECB kept its rates on hold. Follow the questions and reaction live here with capital markets editor Ralph Atkins and Emily Cadman
How will sovereign bonds will be handled in the euro area’s forthcoming banking health checks? This is a vexed question and markets seize ravenously upon any clues.
Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank’s president, offered a flicker of information on Tuesday in a letter to Sharon Bowles, the chair of the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs committee. Sovereign exposures will indeed bit included in the stress test, he said – confirming previous declarations from the ECB.
However, it is “not foreseen” that bonds in the held-to-maturity category of banks’ books will be adjusted to reflect market valuations – otherwise known as marked to market. That will come as a relief to banks that are holding portfolios that have slumped in value, but analysts caution that it is far too soon for lenders to relax. Read more
ECB president Mario Draghi started his monthly press conference shortly after 1.30 GMT. Earlier, as expected, the ECB left rates on hold. Follow the questions and reaction live here with capital markets editor Ralph Atkins and Emily Cadman
European Central Bank presidents, current and former, are renowned for their fondness to “never pre-commit”. Even when the ECB opted to jump on the forward guidance bandwagon, it did so in a much more halfhearted way than its counterparts.
However, a few months ago Mario Draghi made quite a firm pledge to tell us by the end of the autumn how the ECB intended to go about producing an “account” of the governing council’s policy deliberations. Will Mr Draghi end up breaking his promise? Read more
Today the ECB cut its benchmark main refinancing rate to 0.25 per cent.
ECB president Mario Draghi is giving his monthly press conference
Follow the questions and reaction live here with capital markets editor Ralph Atkins and Emily Cadman
By Emily Cadman and Claire Jones
Hello and welcome to the FT’s live blog on Mario Draghi European Central Bank’s press conference.
Earlier the ECB kept its main refinancing rate on hold at 0.50 per cent as it tries to support the eurozone’s fledgling recovery. Mr Draghi will discuss the rate decision at a press conference in Paris at 1:30pm BST, when he is also expected to address the central bank’s stance on providing more liquidity to commercial banks as the maturity of two previous sets of cheap loans looms.
Blue sky thinking reaches Frankfurt (Getty)
Mario Draghi, European Central Bank president, has revived the idea of “reform contracts” — a policy that emerged in Brussels wonk circles last year and entails the EU contractually binding eurozone countries to economic reforms.
Speaking in Berlin on Monday, Mr Draghi told an audience of businesspeople that the eurozone needed two things to achieve sustainable growth: stabilisation and greater competitiveness.
To achieve the latter, he mentioned the need for “better ways of measuring economic performance – for example, more structural indicators of competitiveness.” And went on: Read more
Jackson Hole, the nearest thing on the central banking calendar to Davos, is upon us again, with some of the world’s most senior monetary officials set to head out to the upmarket Wyoming resort over the next few days.
Unlike the annual bash in the Swiss Alps, however, Jackson Hole, which kicks off on Thursday evening and closes on Saturday night, is usually a bit more than a talking shop. Of late, it has been the venue of choice for Fed chair Ben Bernanke to offer clues on where policy is heading.
But, while tapering looks like it is almost upon us, those hoping for more detail on the pace at which the US central bank will slow its asset purchases will not get it from Bernanke this weekend. Read more
Not the ECB (Getty)
The Bundesbank has weighed in on what forward guidance means for the European Central Bank and if you want the short version it boils down to: we have not forgotten about inflation.
The ECB pledged in July to keep interest rates at or below current levels “for an extended period of time,” which, as we’ve noted before has caused some confusion as to what precisely it means.
According to Germany’s central bank, that promise does not actually mean that interest rates cannot rise or that they will necessarily remain low for a long time. As it writes in its latest monthly report:
The decisive point in correctly interpreting this statement is that it is conditional on the unchanged obligation of the Eurosystem [the ECB and the eurozone’s 17 national central banks] towards its mandate of maintaining price stability (which means, operationally, medium term inflation that is below, but close to 2 per cent)… It follows that the ECB’s governing council has not bound itself. If higher price pressures become apparent in future compared to those expected now, forward guidance in no way rules out a rise in interest rates.
It’s the first day of August, traditionally the month many Europeans go on holiday, and there was a definite end-of-term feeling to the European Central Bank’s monthly press conference.
The bank unsurprisingly decided to keep its interest rates on hold and Mario Draghi, president, described data that “tentatively confirm the expectation of a stabilisation in economic activity as low levels”. So they see improvement, but they’re not calling the recovery just yet.
What else did we learn? Read more
Hello and welcome to our live blog on the European Central Bank’s press conference. The central bank did what markets expected and kept rates on hold. But ECB president Mario Draghi might offer some clues on what’s to come from the central bank in the months ahead and investors will also be looking for any comments on whether the ECB might start publishing the minutes from its governing council meetings. Draghi is due to begin speaking at 13.30 UK time.
By Claire Jones and Lindsay Whipp