Japan economy

By Robin Wigglesworth

A slew of economic news and data has come out over the past 24 hours, some good, some bad, and some outright ugly. But if one thing is clear, the economic recovery of advanced economies is far from assured. Here are five highlights, and things to keep in mind.

1: Markets believe the Fed will keep stimulating the economy

Janet Yellen, the nominee for the Federal Reserve chairmanship, will highlight now the US economy is performing “far short” of its potential at her Senate testimony on Thursday, according to prepared remarks released on Wednesday evening. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid points out that while the “tones are certainly dovish, it’s impossible to infer precise policy thoughts from her remarks”. That hasn’t stopped financial markets from rallying on the hope that the presumptive new Fed chairwoman will keep pumping money into the global economy for longer than previously expected. 

Not a milestone to rejoice in. Japan’s debt has tipped into the “quadrillion” zone for the first time. That is, as of the end of June, central government debt, looked like this: Y1,008,628,100,000,000, or $10.4tn.

It surely could not be a clearer message to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that shilly-shallying over fiscal consolidation is no longer an option? Second-quarter economic output figures due on Monday are key to Abe’s decision about whether to raise consumption tax from 5 per cent to 10 per cent by 2015. Back in June in a speech in London, he pinned any decision to raise the tax – one he must make by October – on the strength of the economy in the second quarter.